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Is 10% a reasonable value for that chance? Is 1% a reasonable value for the ownership stake? What about dilution and payout rights? A reasonable expected value
by sidlls 10y ago
Is 10% a reasonable value for that chance? Is 1% a reasonable value for the ownership stake? What about dilution and payout rights?
A reasonable expected value of a lottery ticket is directly computable: jackpot times probability of a winning set. I'm not so sure the same is true for the value of startup employment.
- dragonwriter 10y agoLottery tickets' jackpot is usually determined in part by sales of tickets for that drawing, and a winning combination wins a divided pot in the case of multiple winners (the probability of which depends again on sales of tickets for that drawing.) So, no, you can't, at the time of buying a ticket, actually calculate more than a guess of they parameters you cite for determining its expected value.
- sidlls 10y agoThe published jackpot is a very accurate value to use, and the probability of being the sole winner is a very reasonable probability to use. The actual expected value is not going to differ from that product by enough to matter most of the time.