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"Miele is doomed! Now that there's laundromats and pickup by mail, no one will buy a washing machine anymore!"

• intrasight 10y ago
  Not comparable. There will be no washing machine tax. For cars, there will be a) a road tax b)insurance. My claim is that there is going to be a state transition once the cost of personal car ownership becomes much higher than automated transportation. This state transition is going to be very painful for car manufacturers.
  • m_mueller 10y ago
    'on an infinite timescale' (as Siracusa likes to say) you could be right but looking at the political realities I don't expect this within my lifetime. Take my home country Switzerland: We already have ~50% of commuting done by public transport, no automation needed. You could certainly make an argument that it would be much cheaper for the other half to switch as well so the roads can be used by buses and delivery vehicles - yet noone would even get that idea. Cars have become such an integral part of culture that it will take a long time until you find majorities for restricting access (with the exception of inner cities where this is already happening). Plus, even in Switzerland where there is practically zero stigma in taking a bus, there are lots of regions where not having a car is impractical even once automation is there (an auto still has to get to you when you live in a tiny mountain village).
    • intrasight 10y ago
      The "restricting access" is naturally going to spread out from the city centers. There are powerful economic forces at play, plus the changing mindset of the new generation. The cost of building roads is going up faster than the rate of inflation.