You don't get to say that the EV is close to zero in one case, but not in the other. 20k/year (dollars spent) * 1/100mm (odds of winning) * 100mm (jackpot) = 2

You don't get to say that the EV is close to zero in one case, but not in the other. 20k/year (dollars spent) * 1/100mm (odds of winning) * 100mm (jackpot) = 20k/year If you get a 1% ownership stake for a 20% salary reduction (per year) and you have to stay there for say, 4-5 years in order to get that 100k payout then you're looking at numbers on very similar terms. I understand why people need to be convinced that their odds are much better in startups than in the lottery. But wanting to believe something to be true and it being true aren't the same thing.