2 ms·
On average? Of course not. It's a power-law! Averages mean nothing in power-law situations.
by hackaflocka 10y ago
On average? Of course not. It's a power-law! Averages mean nothing in power-law situations.
- aab0 10y agoIt's not a true power-law (assuming it's not a lognormal). It's truncated by the fact that anyone considering a startup would never have earned more than the world GDP, or more specifically, the peak tech market cap to date (Apple's $775b). Once it's truncated at a finite value, the moments become meaningful.
- AstralStorm 10y agoIt is probably something similar to a negative binomial distribution. (Polya distribution) You play until your VC decides not to fund you or you actually win. This can be done over either money or time. This only works on startups as a group, for any specific one you would use a more complex method as trials are not independent. Discrete please - type distribution, derived by a Markov chain.