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I think in economics when somebody claims that their "predictions came true", it's usually due to luck and not the merits of their theory. You need decades of s
by brokencode 10y ago
I think in economics when somebody claims that their "predictions came true", it's usually due to luck and not the merits of their theory. You need decades of statistical evidence to support an economic theory, not the events of a few years.
- dredmorbius 10y agoIn economics, timing of predictions matters far less than mechanism. Minsky offers a predictive mechanism few others in economics provide. I'm not entirely familiar with it, though he has some strong proponents, most notably Australian (not "Austrian") economist Steve Keen. To give an example from elsewhere in the field, I find Solow's growth model to be vastly inferior to that proposed by R.U. Ayres, in that Ayres considers energy as an input, whilst Solow concocts "technological improvement" out of the residual of labour and capital inputs. For both causal and theoretical bases, the Ayres result (replicated by many others) strikes me as far more convincing. Much of orthodox economics disagrees.