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I do have a few questions... Is there a way to do TV attribution beyond multivariate statistical learning models attempting to gauge the impact on other channe

by crdb 10y ago

I do have a few questions... Is there a way to do TV attribution beyond multivariate statistical learning models attempting to gauge the impact on other channels based on broadcast period? (i.e. treat the offline channel as a categorical variable) What is "dynamic" attribution modelling? Does this mean the attribution model changes depending on who you perceive the customer to be? What is the best way to do multi-device tracking if you don't have a login?

mrgreenfur 10y ago
I'm not who you asked, but maybe I can help with my viewpoint. TV/Radio/Offline marketing can only be attributed via these statistical models (eg in the zip codes where the ads ran, did a bump in traffic or store visits happen). Although old fashioned, I think coupons per channel are a great way to get confirmation of the link between ad and purchase, it's less precise than digital tracking, but at least makes some concrete connections. Multi-device tracking without a login can only be done by using a huge network of 3rd party data. E.g. if xyz company has cookies on everyone and they see a login on one site, then they equate that cookie as the same user across devices, effectively sharing the information with their clients. I think this is very shady and I do not use any data like this because I think it violates people expectation of privacy across interactions.
- crdb 10y ago
  Have you tried correlating visits from different devices from the same IP? E.g. if you get 2 devices from 3 St John St within an hour, then the same 2 from The IBM Building again within an hour, you can make a fair assumption that's the same person (you need the second site to isolate family members). I've never implemented this - never had the time nor clients who wanted it enough - but have always wondered whether it might work. Maybe later this month. In declarative SQL, naturally.
shostack 10y ago
Check out what Adometry and other dedicated attribution providers are doing if you are interested in TV. You need a hefty budget and volume to use them though. Basically it is a combination of art and science with the statistical modeling being more on the art side, and then the science being tagging the ever-loving crap out of everything you can through a single platform to record as many touchpoints as possible. TV is increasingly becoming measurable through things like Hulu, etc. You can also do vanity URLs for direct response TV ads. Dynamic attribution modeling uses machine learning to continually evaluate the effectiveness of touch points, and then changes those weights over time. There are soooo many variables to factor in (decay rate, creative, placement, etc.) and every user has their own unique conversion path where each touch point might have a different level of impact. It is in theory the holy grail of marketing, but totally unique to each company and VERY hard to implement decently. Multi-device tracking has come a long way thanks to lots of data partnerships, but honestly a lot of that feels icky to me. They are effective though. A lot of them rely on cookies and using data brokers and cookie onboarding services to have cookies continually re-added and matched across various devices. So you may not login on my site, but if you logged-in to another site that partners with a data broker (or is Google/FB who do this on their own), they know who you are, and can then map that data to existing audience data records.

by crdb 10y ago

mrgreenfur 10y ago

I'm not who you asked, but maybe I can help with my viewpoint. TV/Radio/Offline marketing can only be attributed via these statistical models (eg in the zip codes where the ads ran, did a bump in traffic or store visits happen). Although old fashioned, I think coupons per channel are a great way to get confirmation of the link between ad and purchase, it's less precise than digital tracking, but at least makes some concrete connections. Multi-device tracking without a login can only be done by using a huge network of 3rd party data. E.g. if xyz company has cookies on everyone and they see a login on one site, then they equate that cookie as the same user across devices, effectively sharing the information with their clients. I think this is very shady and I do not use any data like this because I think it violates people expectation of privacy across interactions.

crdb 10y ago
Have you tried correlating visits from different devices from the same IP? E.g. if you get 2 devices from 3 St John St within an hour, then the same 2 from The IBM Building again within an hour, you can make a fair assumption that's the same person (you need the second site to isolate family members). I've never implemented this - never had the time nor clients who wanted it enough - but have always wondered whether it might work. Maybe later this month. In declarative SQL, naturally.

shostack 10y ago

Check out what Adometry and other dedicated attribution providers are doing if you are interested in TV. You need a hefty budget and volume to use them though. Basically it is a combination of art and science with the statistical modeling being more on the art side, and then the science being tagging the ever-loving crap out of everything you can through a single platform to record as many touchpoints as possible. TV is increasingly becoming measurable through things like Hulu, etc. You can also do vanity URLs for direct response TV ads. Dynamic attribution modeling uses machine learning to continually evaluate the effectiveness of touch points, and then changes those weights over time. There are soooo many variables to factor in (decay rate, creative, placement, etc.) and every user has their own unique conversion path where each touch point might have a different level of impact. It is in theory the holy grail of marketing, but totally unique to each company and VERY hard to implement decently. Multi-device tracking has come a long way thanks to lots of data partnerships, but honestly a lot of that feels icky to me. They are effective though. A lot of them rely on cookies and using data brokers and cookie onboarding services to have cookies continually re-added and matched across various devices. So you may not login on my site, but if you logged-in to another site that partners with a data broker (or is Google/FB who do this on their own), they know who you are, and can then map that data to existing audience data records.