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SpaceX is using Boeing's 1920s strategy to get to Mars
- vannevar 10y agoThis might be a good analogy, if you substitute decades of Space-X time for years of Boeing time. Neither Space-X nor any other launch company has yet proved that it can fly passengers even to Low Earth Orbit with anything like the reliability needed for routine travel. A roughly 1-in-100 chance of dying per trip is much, much too high. Space-X has launched 16 times in the past two years. To demonstrate reasonable reliability, they're going to need to launch ~300 times without losing the vehicle or payload. Even at double the current launch rate, that won't happen until the 2030s.
- GenerocUsername 10y agoA failed launch does not necessarily imply death. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_FXVjf46T8 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_FXVjf46T8 However, your point stands. Space travel will never catch on if it combines "Extreme Sport" mortality rates with C-level costs.