5 ms·

Indeed the most likely scenario appears to be the 'Norwegian model', where the UK in essence remains in the single market and thus will have to follow European

Indeed the most likely scenario appears to be the 'Norwegian model', where the UK in essence remains in the single market and thus will have to follow European regulations but will have a much smaller say when it comes to the future direction of the EU. They will, however, have officially left the EU so the leave camp can pat their shoulders over their Pyrrhic victory.

Numberwang 10y ago
UK Will never be allowed to have 'The Norwegian Model' set up by EU. That would have lot's of other countries asking for the same. UK is in for a long winter on GoT type scale.
- Scarblac 10y ago
  Why would other countries want that model? It seems to be strictly worse than full membership.
  - edko 10y ago
    I also wonder why Norway wants that model?
    - gonvaled 10y ago
      Actually, Norway itself mentioned that their deal is worse that EU membership: the politicians would prefer to join the EU, but this is not an easy sell to the electorate, so they do not bother.
    - jcranmer 10y ago
      Most likely fisheries. The EU's fishery policy is traditionally held as horrible, and Norway and Iceland both have relative large fishing economies and better-maintained fisheries than the EU CFP.
      - TazeTSchnitzel 10y ago
        One wonders if Norway could join the EU and get special exceptions to the CFP.
    - Scarblac 10y ago
      As far as I understand it sort of happened -- Norway was in the EEA because it was trying to become a full EU member, and then later it decided it didn't want to.
- martinko 10y ago
  Valid point, but don't forget that the UK has a much stronger bargaining position than other countries.
  - mattmanser 10y ago
    This is why I don't buy too much of the rhetoric. The 5th biggest economy in the world is going to be put on the naughty step because its citizens decided enough is enough on mass immigration? I think it'll end up being a lot of hot air while a load of backroom EU face-saving, but ultimately lucrative, trade deals are set up.
    - mpweiher 10y ago
      (a) The UK is not being put on the "naughty step". It will stop receiving special privileges that are contingent on being a member of the EU, because it wants to leave the EU. This is not punishment, it is a direct consequence of respecting the UK's wishes. (b) The US is the world's largest national economy (#2 if you count the EU as a single economy) and doesn't have unlimited access, because it isn't part of the EU. China is the world's 2nd larges economy and doesn't have unlimited access, because it isn't part of the EU. Japan is the world's 3rd largest economy and doesn't have unlimited access, because it isn't part of the EU. Germany is the world's 4th largest economy and has unlimited access, because it is part of the EU. ... Malta is the world's 132nd largest economy and has unlimited access, because it is part of the EU. Can you spot the pattern?
      - gonvaled 10y ago
        > This is not punishment, it is a direct consequence of respecting the UK's wishes. Exactly: I wish both brexiteers and EU citizens disappointed by the UK's decision would actually start understanding this: losing EU's benefits is not punishment, is just a consequence of abandoning the EU. Getting access to the market is a benefit to a national economy which the EU has made contingent to an essential individual freedom - which is not necessarily beneficial to the economy - namely freedom of movement, because, well, not everything in life is economy. The UK wants one without the other, and this would first of all damage individual freedoms, and second put the economies which are committed to sustain freedom of movement eventually at a disadvantage. The EU can not allow such a state of a affairs.
lispm 10y ago
The EU is a bit more than the 'single market'.
varjag 10y ago
Norway however does not enjoy EU customs and VAT space. So such an arrangement wouldn't help the UK with the flight of corporate HQs to the continent.
alkonaut 10y ago
But "the single market" implies the free movement of goods and people. If the electorate voted Leave because of immigration, doesn't that mean what they wanted was to leave the single market? I can't see how you can limit migration and allow free movement of people?

Numberwang 10y ago

UK Will never be allowed to have 'The Norwegian Model' set up by EU. That would have lot's of other countries asking for the same. UK is in for a long winter on GoT type scale.

Scarblac 10y ago
Why would other countries want that model? It seems to be strictly worse than full membership.
- edko 10y ago
  I also wonder why Norway wants that model?
  - gonvaled 10y ago
    Actually, Norway itself mentioned that their deal is worse that EU membership: the politicians would prefer to join the EU, but this is not an easy sell to the electorate, so they do not bother.
  - jcranmer 10y ago
    Most likely fisheries. The EU's fishery policy is traditionally held as horrible, and Norway and Iceland both have relative large fishing economies and better-maintained fisheries than the EU CFP.
    - TazeTSchnitzel 10y ago
      One wonders if Norway could join the EU and get special exceptions to the CFP.
  - Scarblac 10y ago
    As far as I understand it sort of happened -- Norway was in the EEA because it was trying to become a full EU member, and then later it decided it didn't want to.
martinko 10y ago
Valid point, but don't forget that the UK has a much stronger bargaining position than other countries.
- mattmanser 10y ago
  This is why I don't buy too much of the rhetoric. The 5th biggest economy in the world is going to be put on the naughty step because its citizens decided enough is enough on mass immigration? I think it'll end up being a lot of hot air while a load of backroom EU face-saving, but ultimately lucrative, trade deals are set up.
  - mpweiher 10y ago
    (a) The UK is not being put on the "naughty step". It will stop receiving special privileges that are contingent on being a member of the EU, because it wants to leave the EU. This is not punishment, it is a direct consequence of respecting the UK's wishes. (b) The US is the world's largest national economy (#2 if you count the EU as a single economy) and doesn't have unlimited access, because it isn't part of the EU. China is the world's 2nd larges economy and doesn't have unlimited access, because it isn't part of the EU. Japan is the world's 3rd largest economy and doesn't have unlimited access, because it isn't part of the EU. Germany is the world's 4th largest economy and has unlimited access, because it is part of the EU. ... Malta is the world's 132nd largest economy and has unlimited access, because it is part of the EU. Can you spot the pattern?
    - gonvaled 10y ago
      > This is not punishment, it is a direct consequence of respecting the UK's wishes. Exactly: I wish both brexiteers and EU citizens disappointed by the UK's decision would actually start understanding this: losing EU's benefits is not punishment, is just a consequence of abandoning the EU. Getting access to the market is a benefit to a national economy which the EU has made contingent to an essential individual freedom - which is not necessarily beneficial to the economy - namely freedom of movement, because, well, not everything in life is economy. The UK wants one without the other, and this would first of all damage individual freedoms, and second put the economies which are committed to sustain freedom of movement eventually at a disadvantage. The EU can not allow such a state of a affairs.

lispm 10y ago

The EU is a bit more than the 'single market'.

varjag 10y ago

Norway however does not enjoy EU customs and VAT space. So such an arrangement wouldn't help the UK with the flight of corporate HQs to the continent.

alkonaut 10y ago

But "the single market" implies the free movement of goods and people. If the electorate voted Leave because of immigration, doesn't that mean what they wanted was to leave the single market? I can't see how you can limit migration and allow free movement of people?