4 ms·

No way that the EU is going to remove the UK from its single market; the rest of EU is far too dependent on demand from the UK economy.

by chvid 10y ago

jerven 10y ago
I think that the EU will. The UK economy is a significant part of the EU economy but the interests of continental governments are now aligned against the UK. They are basically all thinking what can we get out of the UK, their horsetrading has started and the UK has a lot less horses to trade. There are just to many people the UK has to please at once to make the exit smooth for the UK. But for the next 2.5 years you wont really see it. In 2.5 years the crisis will start. Just like the Swiss are only now starting to sweat.
- polotics 10y ago
  could you clarify what you mean about the swiss?
  - barrkel 10y ago
    The Swiss have a more direct democracy than most, and recently voted to limit free travel - trouble is, free travel is a condition of free market access, and with this vote, they're going to lose that. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-singl...
    - 1wd 10y ago
      The Swiss still try to find a compromise that is compatible with free movement. http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/immigration-vote-_sommaruga-admits-major-eu-concession-is--unrealistic-/42420448 http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/immigration-vote-_sommaruga-admi...
      - Create 10y ago
        freedom of movement shall entail the abolition of any discrimination based on nationality between workers of the Member States as regards employment, remuneration and other conditions of work and employment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_movement_for_workers_in_the_European_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_movement_for_worker...
        1wd 10y ago
        As I understand it, even though the "informal proposal" is about "prioritising local workers over foreign ones" the actual proposal only requires informing the regional unemployment offices of open jobs, which might(?) not violate freedom of movement.
        Create 10y ago
        The issue is the following: In February 2014, the Swiss voted in a referendum to introduce quotas for all migrants in Switzerland. The referendum, which requires Switzerland to have annual quotas for immigrants, does not take effect immediately but requires the Swiss government to implement a quota system within three years. Nothing to do with regional unemployment offices.
        1wd 10y ago
        Right, the current proposal tries to implement that referendum in a "light" way. The regional unemployment office measure would be step 2, and only in step 3 might the actual quotas come up, with explicit approval by the EU only. https://www.parlament.ch/en/services/news/Pages/sda-spk-n-2016-09-02.aspx https://www.parlament.ch/en/services/news/Pages/sda-spk-n-20...
flexie 10y ago
Not at all. The UK is a 65 million population stagnant economy that derived most of its strength from the globalization it now wants to part from. It is likely to go to a 60 or 55 million population depressed economy in a few decades if Brexit really happens and foreigners and maybe Scotland leave. There are 450 million in the remaining Union and plenty of countries wanting to join. EU's growth will come from enlargement and from increasing demand in Central and Eastern European member states. EU will have to set an example and in the eyes of many Europeans the Brits must suffer from their foolish choice.
vesinisa 10y ago
That's more like UK's own decision. Both EU and UK benefit from UK in the single market, and I am sure if UK so desires they can leave the EU but stay part of the single market (Norwegian model). That just makes the whole point of the referendum completely moot, since almost all the rules that were so berated by the Leave Campaign will continue to apply - greatest difference being that UK loses its say to affect the future direction of the single market regulation.
barrkel 10y ago
It's not politically possible to retain single market access in any deal with the UK. The UK government can't sell the required package that retains access to the single market, and the EU can't reduce the price of the package without disintegrating - every other country would love single market access without harmonizing rules that prevent beggar-thy-neighbour policies etc. The biggest irony in all of this is that many working class brexiters were voting against globalization, yet more globalization is exactly where the Tory brexiters are going to sail.
lispm 10y ago
Everybody can trade with the EU. One does not need to be in the single market. China trades with the EU, a lot, without being a member. It's just that the single market makes it a lot easier to offer services, set up business, have reliability, move around ... in a region of 500 million people.

No way that the EU is going to remove the UK from its single market; the rest of EU is far too dependent on demand from the UK economy.

by chvid 10y ago

No way that the EU is going to remove the UK from its single market; the rest of EU is far too dependent on demand from the UK economy.

jerven 10y ago

I think that the EU will. The UK economy is a significant part of the EU economy but the interests of continental governments are now aligned against the UK. They are basically all thinking what can we get out of the UK, their horsetrading has started and the UK has a lot less horses to trade. There are just to many people the UK has to please at once to make the exit smooth for the UK. But for the next 2.5 years you wont really see it. In 2.5 years the crisis will start. Just like the Swiss are only now starting to sweat.

polotics 10y ago
could you clarify what you mean about the swiss?
- barrkel 10y ago
  The Swiss have a more direct democracy than most, and recently voted to limit free travel - trouble is, free travel is a condition of free market access, and with this vote, they're going to lose that. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-single-market-access-no-free-movement-citizens https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/03/eu-swiss-singl...
  - 1wd 10y ago
    The Swiss still try to find a compromise that is compatible with free movement. http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/immigration-vote-_sommaruga-admits-major-eu-concession-is--unrealistic-/42420448 http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/immigration-vote-_sommaruga-admi...
    - Create 10y ago
      freedom of movement shall entail the abolition of any discrimination based on nationality between workers of the Member States as regards employment, remuneration and other conditions of work and employment. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_movement_for_workers_in_the_European_Union https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_movement_for_worker...
      - 1wd 10y ago
        As I understand it, even though the "informal proposal" is about "prioritising local workers over foreign ones" the actual proposal only requires informing the regional unemployment offices of open jobs, which might(?) not violate freedom of movement.
        Create 10y ago
        The issue is the following: In February 2014, the Swiss voted in a referendum to introduce quotas for all migrants in Switzerland. The referendum, which requires Switzerland to have annual quotas for immigrants, does not take effect immediately but requires the Swiss government to implement a quota system within three years. Nothing to do with regional unemployment offices.
        1wd 10y ago
        Right, the current proposal tries to implement that referendum in a "light" way. The regional unemployment office measure would be step 2, and only in step 3 might the actual quotas come up, with explicit approval by the EU only. https://www.parlament.ch/en/services/news/Pages/sda-spk-n-2016-09-02.aspx https://www.parlament.ch/en/services/news/Pages/sda-spk-n-20...

flexie 10y ago

Not at all. The UK is a 65 million population stagnant economy that derived most of its strength from the globalization it now wants to part from. It is likely to go to a 60 or 55 million population depressed economy in a few decades if Brexit really happens and foreigners and maybe Scotland leave. There are 450 million in the remaining Union and plenty of countries wanting to join. EU's growth will come from enlargement and from increasing demand in Central and Eastern European member states. EU will have to set an example and in the eyes of many Europeans the Brits must suffer from their foolish choice.

vesinisa 10y ago

That's more like UK's own decision. Both EU and UK benefit from UK in the single market, and I am sure if UK so desires they can leave the EU but stay part of the single market (Norwegian model). That just makes the whole point of the referendum completely moot, since almost all the rules that were so berated by the Leave Campaign will continue to apply - greatest difference being that UK loses its say to affect the future direction of the single market regulation.

barrkel 10y ago

It's not politically possible to retain single market access in any deal with the UK. The UK government can't sell the required package that retains access to the single market, and the EU can't reduce the price of the package without disintegrating - every other country would love single market access without harmonizing rules that prevent beggar-thy-neighbour policies etc. The biggest irony in all of this is that many working class brexiters were voting against globalization, yet more globalization is exactly where the Tory brexiters are going to sail.

lispm 10y ago

Everybody can trade with the EU. One does not need to be in the single market. China trades with the EU, a lot, without being a member. It's just that the single market makes it a lot easier to offer services, set up business, have reliability, move around ... in a region of 500 million people.