Unrelated to the general tone of the thread but: My biggest problem with this Taleb piece is that it doesn't really take into account the probability of succes

Unrelated to the general tone of the thread but: My biggest problem with this Taleb piece is that it doesn't really take into account the probability of success from a particular intolerant minority. In practice there's a kind of signal-strength effect where the further up the chain you go the less effective any one person becomes. Once you factor that into the model Taleb's argument falls apart.