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Somewhat related: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf
by olalonde 10y ago
Somewhat related: http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/minority.pdf
- unimpressive 10y agoUnrelated to the general tone of the thread but: My biggest problem with this Taleb piece is that it doesn't really take into account the probability of success from a particular intolerant minority. In practice there's a kind of signal-strength effect where the further up the chain you go the less effective any one person becomes. Once you factor that into the model Taleb's argument falls apart.