5 ms·

> given that all our eggs are in the SpaceX basket. What do you mean here?

• theothermkn 10y ago
  SpaceX is currently the only credible organization with a low-cost launch system of sizeable payloads capable of reaching more than a tiny fraction of the energies needed for orbit. For example, Blue Origin's vehicle is capable only of an exoatmospheric hop, which is optimistically 3% of the energy capability needed to get to orbit. Given that the rocket equation says that the floor of the the remaining costs are proportional to exp(sqrt(remaining 97% of the orbital energy)), Blue Origin amounts to a rich boy's hobby or lifestyle tourism business. Advances in space launch technology and improvements in cost are thus concentrated in one basket, and one that is additionally weighted with electric car and solar power ventures of dubious long-term financial viability.
  • dasmoth 10y ago
    Blue do have a plan for an orbital launch vehicle. And seem to be fairly far advanced with developing an engine for it (BE-4 -- also planned for use on ULA's new "Vulcan" launcher) They've got a launch site at CCAFS, and have started building a new factory there as well. I'm a SpaceX fan, and definitely consider them to be ahead at the moment -- but certainly wouldn't write Blue off completely.
  • Florin_Andrei 10y ago
    Yup. Most of the energy actually goes into building up kinetic energy to be able to circle around at tremendous speeds. Lifting the thing up to that level only takes a tiny fraction of the total energy budget. Blue Origin can only climb up, then fall down - for now. But who knows what they are working on.