3 ms·

The fun-part: 99,9% of end-users don't care about any of what you just said. They care about being able to get a fancy touchscreen handset with "apps and all" f

by moe 17y ago

The fun-part: 99,9% of end-users don't care about any of what you just said. They care about being able to get a fancy touchscreen handset with "apps and all" for $99. That's how android is gaining initial market share. I personally have a G1 and yes, it sucks. But I've also seen the progress they made during the one year I have owned it and it's quite impressive, to say the least. Your assessment that android is not up there with the iPhone yet is correct. But the nexus is much closer to the iPhone than you make it out to be. For each of the shortcomings you mention there are also upsides (multitasking!). I'm giving it 2-3 generations before the android handsets surpass the iPhone. Unless apple comes up with some big changes ofcourse - like introducing multitasking which will be considered a basic smartphone feature soon. If history has taught us anything then that open always wins. If the apple closed platform manages to suppress the android open platform perpetually then that would be a first.

dca 17y ago
"If history has taught us anything then that open always wins." The web and unix-like OS's are the only two examples I can think of off the top of my head where open platforms have done well. Windows was closed, and its much more popular for consumer desktop apps and game development. Video game consoles are all closed and there are no open alternatives I'm aware of. I'm not saying I don't think open might win in the long run, but I don't think I would agree that history has taught us that it always wins. Not yet anyway.
- tptacek 17y ago
  In fact, the iPhone/iPad is vastly more open than any game console: you can develop commercial applications for it on an almost level playing field with the largest title producers, and market your products on the same shelf as they do, at a tiny cost. What do pro dev kits for the X360 cost again?
  - gte910h 17y ago
    Bad example, you can get on the XBox360 marketplace for $99 dollars these days. The iphone was vastly more open than almost any phone before it was. Just android is completely open.
    - tptacek 17y ago
      Give me a break. People writing XNA games are not on a level playing field --- at the platform level --- with people writing retail titles.
      - metachor 17y ago
        This is correct. The XNA framework for indie XBox 360 game development has serious technical limitations that set it apart from the "professional" development kit (which I am not able to obtain the price for, as I am not already an established game production company). Being forced to write in managed code on top of a library of entirely managed code with an uncontrollable garbage collector is one technical issue off the top of my head.
    - somebear 17y ago
      I'm not sure you've heard about Symbian, it's only 47% of the smartphone market [1]. You can develop apps for Symbian and install them on your device very easily. Unless you are doing anything hardcore they can even be self-signed (since Symbian OS 9.1 released in 2005 apps have to be signed to be installed) as long as they don't need any hardcore capabilities. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone
      - tptacek 17y ago
        Is Symbian to Nokia what XNA is to the X360?
        somebear 17y ago
        I don't know, but Symbian does have the largest value share of the platforms at Nokia (S30/S40, Symbian, Maemo).
tptacek 17y ago
I don't know what world you live in, but in mine, Apple is crushing Google, so I'm pretty sure that 99.9% of users don't care about the "progress" Google is making either.
- gte910h 17y ago
  The iPhone sold 25.4 million units last year (15% of the market share). There were 7.7 million Android units (8% of the market share) sold. As the first iPhone came out 1.25 years before the first Android phone, this is by no means a crushing. Android has only recently been advertised, most of that by Verizon (99% of my customers who ask about android ask about Droid, not Android). The fact you can get android phones for free/cheap and on almost every carrier is likely enough to grant them a larger eventual marketshare than iPhoneOS. There are only so many AT&T subscribers (or people willing to be AT&T subscribers after that wiretapping thing and their poor performance in cities). You can like the iPhone better (and I do) and still admit "Oh hey, Android phones are getting sold a lot these days". Source: http://technorati.com/technology/android/article/nearly-8-million-android-phones-sold/ http://technorati.com/technology/android/article/nearly-8-mi...
  - stcredzero 17y ago
    How can 15% = 25.4 million while 8% = 7.7 million?
    - gte910h 17y ago
      Yeah, looks like I had issues with copy pasting and rounding. Look at the article for real numbers.
- moe 17y ago
  I'm not sure what you mean by "crushing". As far as I know the battle has only begun a few months ago, and obviously apple-marketshare is dwarfing android marketshare today - android is the newcomer. However, I think the simple problem that apple will be facing soon is that android undercuts them. You can buy android handsets in all price-ranges, whereas apple will probably want to keep the iPhone a premium item. In consequence that means daddy is more likely to buy his daughter a $99 android for her first handset than a $499 iphone. And when that handset breaks she will be familiar with android, thus might tend to look at the higher range androids before the iPhone. That's how the userbase is building already. And as we know, userbase means developer interest, developer interest means apps, apps mean improved experience. Improved experience eventually means trouble for the iPhone's unique selling point ("best expirience money can buy").
colinplamondon 17y ago
But the price part isn't relevant- iPhone is $99, the only advantage Android has right now is being on more carriers in the United States. All signs point to Verizon being up to bat in July, nixing that single advantage. I'm not sure that open matters as much on a phone- the iPhone, as a 'kind of open' marketplace, is able to filter for quality and provide a more consistent interface for getting applications. Browsing the Android Market just isn't a good experience. Open usually wins because better applications result- so far, that hasn't come even close to happening. The Android UI elements ensure nasty looking out of the box products without major tweaking, and the Mac designer culture has lead to beautiful interfaces for iPhone that aren't available anywhere else. History's useful as a guide, but sometimes things happen that break the cycle- it's my belief that that is the case with iPhone OS.
deleted 17y ago
[deleted]
brisance 17y ago
Maybe I'm showing my age but the Android model is somewhat similar to what 3DO had in mind... single OS on multiple game console manufacturers and profit off the licensing fees. That didn't turn out too well.

by moe 17y ago

dca 17y ago

"If history has taught us anything then that open always wins." The web and unix-like OS's are the only two examples I can think of off the top of my head where open platforms have done well. Windows was closed, and its much more popular for consumer desktop apps and game development. Video game consoles are all closed and there are no open alternatives I'm aware of. I'm not saying I don't think open might win in the long run, but I don't think I would agree that history has taught us that it always wins. Not yet anyway.

tptacek 17y ago
In fact, the iPhone/iPad is vastly more open than any game console: you can develop commercial applications for it on an almost level playing field with the largest title producers, and market your products on the same shelf as they do, at a tiny cost. What do pro dev kits for the X360 cost again?
- gte910h 17y ago
  Bad example, you can get on the XBox360 marketplace for $99 dollars these days. The iphone was vastly more open than almost any phone before it was. Just android is completely open.
  - tptacek 17y ago
    Give me a break. People writing XNA games are not on a level playing field --- at the platform level --- with people writing retail titles.
    - metachor 17y ago
      This is correct. The XNA framework for indie XBox 360 game development has serious technical limitations that set it apart from the "professional" development kit (which I am not able to obtain the price for, as I am not already an established game production company). Being forced to write in managed code on top of a library of entirely managed code with an uncontrollable garbage collector is one technical issue off the top of my head.
  - somebear 17y ago
    I'm not sure you've heard about Symbian, it's only 47% of the smartphone market [1]. You can develop apps for Symbian and install them on your device very easily. Unless you are doing anything hardcore they can even be self-signed (since Symbian OS 9.1 released in 2005 apps have to be signed to be installed) as long as they don't need any hardcore capabilities. [1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartphone
    - tptacek 17y ago
      Is Symbian to Nokia what XNA is to the X360?
      - somebear 17y ago
        I don't know, but Symbian does have the largest value share of the platforms at Nokia (S30/S40, Symbian, Maemo).

tptacek 17y ago

I don't know what world you live in, but in mine, Apple is crushing Google, so I'm pretty sure that 99.9% of users don't care about the "progress" Google is making either.

gte910h 17y ago
The iPhone sold 25.4 million units last year (15% of the market share). There were 7.7 million Android units (8% of the market share) sold. As the first iPhone came out 1.25 years before the first Android phone, this is by no means a crushing. Android has only recently been advertised, most of that by Verizon (99% of my customers who ask about android ask about Droid, not Android). The fact you can get android phones for free/cheap and on almost every carrier is likely enough to grant them a larger eventual marketshare than iPhoneOS. There are only so many AT&T subscribers (or people willing to be AT&T subscribers after that wiretapping thing and their poor performance in cities). You can like the iPhone better (and I do) and still admit "Oh hey, Android phones are getting sold a lot these days". Source: http://technorati.com/technology/android/article/nearly-8-million-android-phones-sold/ http://technorati.com/technology/android/article/nearly-8-mi...
- stcredzero 17y ago
  How can 15% = 25.4 million while 8% = 7.7 million?
  - gte910h 17y ago
    Yeah, looks like I had issues with copy pasting and rounding. Look at the article for real numbers.
moe 17y ago
I'm not sure what you mean by "crushing". As far as I know the battle has only begun a few months ago, and obviously apple-marketshare is dwarfing android marketshare today - android is the newcomer. However, I think the simple problem that apple will be facing soon is that android undercuts them. You can buy android handsets in all price-ranges, whereas apple will probably want to keep the iPhone a premium item. In consequence that means daddy is more likely to buy his daughter a $99 android for her first handset than a $499 iphone. And when that handset breaks she will be familiar with android, thus might tend to look at the higher range androids before the iPhone. That's how the userbase is building already. And as we know, userbase means developer interest, developer interest means apps, apps mean improved experience. Improved experience eventually means trouble for the iPhone's unique selling point ("best expirience money can buy").

colinplamondon 17y ago

But the price part isn't relevant- iPhone is $99, the only advantage Android has right now is being on more carriers in the United States. All signs point to Verizon being up to bat in July, nixing that single advantage. I'm not sure that open matters as much on a phone- the iPhone, as a 'kind of open' marketplace, is able to filter for quality and provide a more consistent interface for getting applications. Browsing the Android Market just isn't a good experience. Open usually wins because better applications result- so far, that hasn't come even close to happening. The Android UI elements ensure nasty looking out of the box products without major tweaking, and the Mac designer culture has lead to beautiful interfaces for iPhone that aren't available anywhere else. History's useful as a guide, but sometimes things happen that break the cycle- it's my belief that that is the case with iPhone OS.

deleted 17y ago

[deleted]

brisance 17y ago

Maybe I'm showing my age but the Android model is somewhat similar to what 3DO had in mind... single OS on multiple game console manufacturers and profit off the licensing fees. That didn't turn out too well.