3 ms·

Sorry to be a smartass, but isn't this post self-refuting?

• seizethecheese 10y ago
  I don't think so. For example, newspaper profits were near their all time high in 2008[1]. Following trends of newspaper profitability would not have lead an observer to predict the massive collapse of that industry in the subsequent years. [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_newspapers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_newspapers
  • sevenless 10y ago
    What I'm saying is that > If you depend on current trends for you thinking, you'll never predict the future. is itself an observation about current trends in the efficacy of predicting the future, and therefore, if it's true, must be false.
    • jessaustin 10y ago
      The statement is unconditional and timeless. It says something about the concept of "current trends", but it does not reference current trends to bolster its argument. E.g., examining current trends now isn't held to be less useful than examining them fifty years ago would have been. The statement could still be wrong, but not for the reason you cite.
      • sevenless 10y ago
        But the only way to justify such a statement would be to point to... current trends. As the OP did.