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I was also born 40 years ago. People were routinely walking on the moon before we were born. Nobody has done so since. 50 years ago, NASA's baseline plan called
by nkoren 10y ago
I was also born 40 years ago. People were routinely walking on the moon before we were born. Nobody has done so since. 50 years ago, NASA's baseline plan called for a permanent settlement on the moon by 1978, and a permanent settlement on Mars by 1986. That was the working assumption -- not of a few wild-eyed futurists, but of tens of thousands of ordinary bureaucrats -- during the ramp-up of the Apollo program.
So yes, that future has been very, very slow to arrive.
And yes, we're all carrying gigaflops computers around, which is massively cool but also, 40 years ago, somewhat expected.[1]
My feeling is that in the last 10 years -- and particularly in the last 5, as the AI winter has decisively ended and the private spaceflight reusability efforts have ramped up -- things have genuinely been accelerating. But prior to that, the 70s, 80s, and 90s were relatively stalled decades, compared to the much more fundamental breakthroughs of the three decades before.
1: http://www.cnet.com/uk/news/samsung-says-2001-a-space-odyssey-invented-the-tablet-not-apple/ http://www.cnet.com/uk/news/samsung-says-2001-a-space-odysse...
- throwanem 10y agoBefore that was NASA's plan, it was Dr. von Braun's. He was a brilliant man and a very persuasive one, but he never would've had a chance to send even a few manned capsules to the moon if not for the fact that his adoptive country required a rocket capable of serving as an intercontinental weapon, and a conclusive demonstration of superiority over a geopolitical rival. Once those goals were achieved, and in the absence of Dr. von Braun's influence, no one with the power or money to advance his true goals remained any longer interested in doing so.
- thescriptkiddie 10y agoThat's not true at all. The Saturn V was an order of magnitude larger than needed to deliver the largest nuclear weapons to Moscow, and would have been utterly impractical as a weapon. The Soyuz may have started out as an ICBM but the Saturn V was purpose built to go to the moon.
- throwanem 10y agoOf course it was. The point I'm making is that the project would not have been funded at all absent the coincidence of a requirement for rockets capable of serving as weapons on one hand, and the US having a geopolitical point to make on the other.
- thescriptkiddie 10y agoOh, well carry on then.
- stuxnet79 10y agoInteresting that you refer to him as "Dr" Von Braun. Von Braun never acquired a doctorate. That was a title that was bestowed on him by Hitler. My understanding is he almost never used it once he reached America and people started investigating his Nazi involvement.
- throwanem 10y agoYour understanding may be in error. From NASA's historical files [1]: "Wanting to learn more about physics, chemistry, and astronomy, I entered the University of Berlin for graduate study. I was graduated with a Ph. D. in Physics in 1934." [1] http://history.msfc.nasa.gov/vonbraun/recollect-childhood.html http://history.msfc.nasa.gov/vonbraun/recollect-childhood.ht...
- stuxnet79 10y agoOk, thanks for pointing this out. It seems that I'm remembering this wrong. The actual title, Hitler bestowed on him was that of "Professor" which he allowed to be used by his underlings frequently up until he got Operation Paperclip'ed to America and people started asking questions.
- dragonwriter 10y ago> Von Braun never acquired a doctorate. He earned a Ph.D. in Physics as a result of his post-graduate studies at Friedrich-Wilhelm University of Berlin in 1934. There's certainly a regime connection, in that there was both a public portion of his thesis and a classified portion that was not published at the time, and that his research was military. But the idea that he didn't "acquire" (or, more specifically, earn through research) a Ph.D. but somehow had one bestowed as a gift by Hitler seems to be without basis.
- stuxnet79 10y ago> Ph.D. but somehow had one bestowed as a gift by Hitler seems to be without basis. Alright, thanks for researching this. The actual title that I was thinking of is "Professor". Hitler always called him "Prof Von Braun" even though he was never a tenured professor.
- nkoren 10y agoSorry to contradict you, but that genuinely was NASA's plan, not just von Braun's: http://www.airspacemag.com/space/the-road-to-mars-961235/?all http://www.airspacemag.com/space/the-road-to-mars-961235/?al... > Washington-savvy Webb stepped down in 1969. Tom Paine, an entirely different kind of NASA chief, replaced him. Pain, a Washington neophyte with little grasp of politics, let vision be his guide as he set out to define NASA's post-Apollo goals. He liked the audacity of a plan that Mueller's office had outlined for NASA. Evolved from JAG work, Mueller's Integrated Program Plan saw a space base in Earth orbit, a moon base, and humans on Mars—all by 1982. [...] > In September 1969, President Nixon's Space Task Group endorsed the NASA plan, but with reservations. NASA formed an agency-wide team to begin implementation. But Nixon ignored the task group's recommendations, opting instead to funnel NASA's budget toward building the space shuttle.
- nkoren 10y agoSee also: http://www.lpi.usra.edu/lunar/strategies/HumanstoMars.pdf http://www.lpi.usra.edu/lunar/strategies/HumanstoMars.pdf for useful background.
- throwanem 10y agoMy reading of the relevant history is that it became NASA's plan primarily as a result of Dr. von Braun's advocacy. But you're right about the inaccuracy of my earlier comment, which I have now updated. Thanks for catching that!
- AstralStorm 10y agoUntil Elon Musk with his SpaceX?
- throwanem 10y agoI hope so!