4 ms·
Technology seems to follow either a sigmoid or a bell curve. And invariably during the climb to the plateau, the humans living at the time envision the climb t
by digi_owl 10y ago
Technology seems to follow either a sigmoid or a bell curve.
And invariably during the climb to the plateau, the humans living at the time envision the climb to go on forever.
So when people looked at the rapid growth of computing power as transistors and ICs replaced radio valves, they envisioned the computing power hitting the point where it would rival neurons.
But now we are reaching the plateau, and it has come far short of the early visions.
- romaniv 10y ago50 years ago was 1966. Judging by many SF novels from that time, people were actually rather pessimistic about computing power we would have right now. Almost universally, authors predicted some progress, but still thought computers would be expensive, large and not as powerful as what we have now. On the other hand, they were very optimistic about space travel, AI algorithms, robotics, energy prodution/storage tech, personal transportation and the state of industrial engineering.