Those seem to be pretty good odds. Thanks for the rough estimate. You can also hit 'unicorns' as a scientist, for example a major discovery (nobel prize) or in

Those seem to be pretty good odds. Thanks for the rough estimate. You can also hit 'unicorns' as a scientist, for example a major discovery (nobel prize) or innovation (millennium technology prize), which should be taken into account somehow if we want to compare the two. In start ups there are lots of discussions and analysis of long tails and capturing unicorns (implying lots of failures along the way) but analysis of careers in science never gets the same treatment, although I find many connections between the two (many small failures but big wins). It is always statistics of what an average scientist would achieve rather than what a top scientist would achieve. It would be nice to apply some of the same analyses we do on careers in start ups to careers on science.