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You can have an accident if you drive while being drunk. The fact that most of the time there is no accident doesn't mean that it's not dangerous. Sometimes it

by plafl 10y ago

You can have an accident if you drive while being drunk. The fact that most of the time there is no accident doesn't mean that it's not dangerous. Sometimes it looks like we take economic and political decisions similarly.

chimeracoder 10y ago
Agreed, though in this case it's more like smoking, or exposing yourself to a large dose of radiation, because there's a latency in between the event (Brexit vote) and the ultimate outcome. Just because you don't develop cancer the very next day doesn't mean you won't suffer long-term health consequences[0]. Likewise, just because the outlook two months later doesn't look dire, that doesn't mean the UK won't suffer long-term economic consequences from the vote. (The disease analogy breaks down when you also factor in the uncertainty around whether Article 50 would even be invoked after the vote, or the uncertainty around what the ultimate outcome of the exit negotiations will be.) [0] Likewise, just because you develop cancer, that doesn't exactly mean that you got it because of that exposure either.
- gutnor 10y ago
  > Likewise, just because the outlook two months later doesn't look dire, that doesn't mean the UK won't suffer long-term economic consequences from the vote. Also, maybe if the economic consequences had been really bad after 2 months, people would be trying to avoid Brexit in the first place. The Brexit is something that will be judged in a generation.
gozur88 10y ago
You can be punished by the gods for cursing. The fact that most of the time they don't punish you doesn't mean it's not dangerous.
- JadeNB 10y ago
  I think that the point is that the lack of consequences of an action taken only once does not prove the lack of harmfulness of that action, rather than that Brexit (or any other action) definitely, absolutely is harmful (which I don't think anyone is yet in a position to say for sure).
  - gozur88 10y ago
    I understand. But the idea that Brexit was going to destroy the UK economy, particularly before Article 50 was even invoked, was never more than scare mongering. The priests said the gods would be angry. When the punishment didn't happen, should we assume we dodged a bullet and the gods decided to be merciful, or should we assume the priests don't really speak for the gods?

by plafl 10y ago

chimeracoder 10y ago

Agreed, though in this case it's more like smoking, or exposing yourself to a large dose of radiation, because there's a latency in between the event (Brexit vote) and the ultimate outcome. Just because you don't develop cancer the very next day doesn't mean you won't suffer long-term health consequences[0]. Likewise, just because the outlook two months later doesn't look dire, that doesn't mean the UK won't suffer long-term economic consequences from the vote. (The disease analogy breaks down when you also factor in the uncertainty around whether Article 50 would even be invoked after the vote, or the uncertainty around what the ultimate outcome of the exit negotiations will be.) [0] Likewise, just because you develop cancer, that doesn't exactly mean that you got it because of that exposure either.

gutnor 10y ago
> Likewise, just because the outlook two months later doesn't look dire, that doesn't mean the UK won't suffer long-term economic consequences from the vote. Also, maybe if the economic consequences had been really bad after 2 months, people would be trying to avoid Brexit in the first place. The Brexit is something that will be judged in a generation.

gozur88 10y ago

You can be punished by the gods for cursing. The fact that most of the time they don't punish you doesn't mean it's not dangerous.

JadeNB 10y ago
I think that the point is that the lack of consequences of an action taken only once does not prove the lack of harmfulness of that action, rather than that Brexit (or any other action) definitely, absolutely is harmful (which I don't think anyone is yet in a position to say for sure).
- gozur88 10y ago
  I understand. But the idea that Brexit was going to destroy the UK economy, particularly before Article 50 was even invoked, was never more than scare mongering. The priests said the gods would be angry. When the punishment didn't happen, should we assume we dodged a bullet and the gods decided to be merciful, or should we assume the priests don't really speak for the gods?