5 ms·

What would be the best way to make money betting on a crash?

Swizec 10y ago
Get a high paying job in an overfunded startup. Save aggressively. Build alternative income streams. If crash comes: ride it out on savings and alternative income streams. If crash doesn't come: congratz, you're rich.
- chubot 10y ago
  That doesn't sound right to me. As far as I can tell, for most positions, if you just care about money and are not counting on the IPO lottery, you're better off working at Google or Facebook (assuming you can get the job). In other words, overfunded startups aren't paying THAT much. And even then, most people would not call you "rich" by Silicon Valley standards. I would say "rich" at a minimum requires you to be able to buy a house in Silicon Valley or SF.
  - geggam 10y ago
    ... buy a modest house in SF or a castle... or an island with a house only rich people have houses in SF ... for now
  - Swizec 10y ago
    This is true, my strategy hedges bets. Get enough cash to cover expenses and save a lot -> no downside. Still participate in the potential upside. Low risk, high reward is the name of the game. A job at Google or Facebook, if you can get it, is just as stable these days as a job at a startup is.
    - tracker1 10y ago
      Depending on where you are, any job at $BIG_CORP is generally more stable than any startup I've worked for... at least outside SV. I've spent most of my life in the Phoenix area, and the job market for developers (outside late 2001 through mid 2002) has been very good, especially compared to cost of living. It's all been line of business work for the most part, and none of it too exciting. But it pays consistently. And does leave enough time to work on secondary projects. I've never really seen the draw into the startup lottery, it just seems like a bad bet as an employee most of the time.
- sidlls 10y ago
  My experience is that startups uniformly pay less (significantly in some cases) than established companies. They also (warning: anecdata) fudge the pay schemes, doing thinks like counting a hiring bonus which can be clawed back as part of salary, or running a "stock options/equity" scam, etc.
- rak00n 10y ago
  It's hard to save aggressively in SV without sacrificing comfort.
chejazi 10y ago
If a platform like Equidate (https://equidateinc.com/ https://equidateinc.com/) allowed shorting that would be king.
chatmasta 10y ago
Short FB and GOOG, since both are entirely dependent on ad revenue, and marketing budgets are the first to be cut in a recession. The problem with shorting equities like that is that your downside is unlimited. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can hold your short position," or whatever the saying is.
- buckbova 10y ago
  If a bunch of ad-tech startups fail, won't this drive more business towards google? Perhaps it will bring down the inflated costs for online advertising to counter this.
- 15155 10y ago
  Buy put options expiring far into the future if you really think these individual stocks will crash. But this is probably a bad idea. Meanwhile, I'll be selling premium.
MrMullen 10y ago
What would be the best way to tell if there is a market crash about to happen? Is there a way to monitor for a decrease in Help Wanted ads or an uptick in vacant commercial properties in SV? There has to be some numbers before the crash that could tell you when the crash was about to happen. There has to be the proverbial canary in a coal mine out there. * I knew the 2008 housing crash was coming when someone told my Dad that mortgage companies were not even checking credit history of buyers anymore. I knew that day, housing market was toast, but I did not know how to make money off of it.
- Gustomaximus 10y ago
  There's a bunch of short funds you can buy into. A buddy has an unlisted one set up and they are waiting out the next 12-24 months waiting for an Asian market crash. It's quite interesting to hear how they set up the strategy of what companies/industries they have focused on. A quick Googlefu brought up this article. No idea if these funds are good but this kind of things is a Good investment point if you want to bet on a crash: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/090115/top-5-bear-market-mutual-funds.asp http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/090115/top-5-...

Get a high paying job in an overfunded startup. Save aggressively. Build alternative income streams. If crash comes: ride it out on savings and alternative income streams. If crash doesn't come: congratz, you're rich.

chubot 10y ago
That doesn't sound right to me. As far as I can tell, for most positions, if you just care about money and are not counting on the IPO lottery, you're better off working at Google or Facebook (assuming you can get the job). In other words, overfunded startups aren't paying THAT much. And even then, most people would not call you "rich" by Silicon Valley standards. I would say "rich" at a minimum requires you to be able to buy a house in Silicon Valley or SF.
- geggam 10y ago
  ... buy a modest house in SF or a castle... or an island with a house only rich people have houses in SF ... for now
- Swizec 10y ago
  This is true, my strategy hedges bets. Get enough cash to cover expenses and save a lot -> no downside. Still participate in the potential upside. Low risk, high reward is the name of the game. A job at Google or Facebook, if you can get it, is just as stable these days as a job at a startup is.
  - tracker1 10y ago
    Depending on where you are, any job at $BIG_CORP is generally more stable than any startup I've worked for... at least outside SV. I've spent most of my life in the Phoenix area, and the job market for developers (outside late 2001 through mid 2002) has been very good, especially compared to cost of living. It's all been line of business work for the most part, and none of it too exciting. But it pays consistently. And does leave enough time to work on secondary projects. I've never really seen the draw into the startup lottery, it just seems like a bad bet as an employee most of the time.
sidlls 10y ago
My experience is that startups uniformly pay less (significantly in some cases) than established companies. They also (warning: anecdata) fudge the pay schemes, doing thinks like counting a hiring bonus which can be clawed back as part of salary, or running a "stock options/equity" scam, etc.
rak00n 10y ago
It's hard to save aggressively in SV without sacrificing comfort.

chejazi 10y ago

If a platform like Equidate (https://equidateinc.com/ https://equidateinc.com/) allowed shorting that would be king.

chatmasta 10y ago

Short FB and GOOG, since both are entirely dependent on ad revenue, and marketing budgets are the first to be cut in a recession. The problem with shorting equities like that is that your downside is unlimited. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can hold your short position," or whatever the saying is.

buckbova 10y ago
If a bunch of ad-tech startups fail, won't this drive more business towards google? Perhaps it will bring down the inflated costs for online advertising to counter this.
15155 10y ago
Buy put options expiring far into the future if you really think these individual stocks will crash. But this is probably a bad idea. Meanwhile, I'll be selling premium.

MrMullen 10y ago

What would be the best way to tell if there is a market crash about to happen? Is there a way to monitor for a decrease in Help Wanted ads or an uptick in vacant commercial properties in SV? There has to be some numbers before the crash that could tell you when the crash was about to happen. There has to be the proverbial canary in a coal mine out there. * I knew the 2008 housing crash was coming when someone told my Dad that mortgage companies were not even checking credit history of buyers anymore. I knew that day, housing market was toast, but I did not know how to make money off of it.

Gustomaximus 10y ago
There's a bunch of short funds you can buy into. A buddy has an unlisted one set up and they are waiting out the next 12-24 months waiting for an Asian market crash. It's quite interesting to hear how they set up the strategy of what companies/industries they have focused on. A quick Googlefu brought up this article. No idea if these funds are good but this kind of things is a Good investment point if you want to bet on a crash: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/090115/top-5-bear-market-mutual-funds.asp http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/090115/top-5-...