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My main concern is that there are few investment avenues these days that provide a decent return without being extraordinarily risky. Stocks are stagnating. Bon

My main concern is that there are few investment avenues these days that provide a decent return without being extraordinarily risky. Stocks are stagnating. Bond yields are so dismal you have to invest in places like Turkey to see any sort of return - if it even happens. That pretty much makes Silicon Valley the default place to get any bang for your buck. Investors in VC funds want to see returns. VCs want to keep investing in winners, getting more investment in their funds, and making good money along the way. People want to turn their sweat into gold so there is no shortage of aspirational entrepreneurs. So it seems to me that if there is anything that could turn a cautious slowdown into a full-blown crash, it's a scarcity of decent investment options.

harryh 10y ago
Stocks are stagnating. * S&P500 YTD: Up 6.7% * S&P500 1 Year: Up 9.7% * S&P500 5 Year: Up 85.4%
- vidarh 10y ago
  (EDIT: Didn't notice that the emphasis in parent is a quote from grandparent. So consider the numbers below to further support parent rather than contradict it) Your numbers doesn't show that at all. 9.7% up in a year is roughly 0.775% average per month compounded. Assuming even growth through the year, which is obviously a simplification, to reach 9.7% at the end of the year you'd want to have appreciated 6.3% by now, so 6.7% doesn't sound all that bad. 85.4% over 5 years is roughly 13%/year compounded. Since 1950, the annualised average return of the S&P500 have fluctuated between -3.6% and 19.3% [1], so both the 1Y and 5Y are well within the norm. If 9.7% were to hold through a full decade, it'd still be far above the median per-decade averages. [1] http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-to...
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - vecinu 10y ago
    I think you're missing the fact that the OP was responding to "rm -rf /" and saying that stocks have not been stagnating.
    - vidarh 10y ago
      Ah, yes, I didn't notice that the emphasis was meant to be a quote. Thanks.
  - readams 10y ago
    I'm pretty sure his numbers were intended to show that stock returns are currently very healthy and not stagnating.
  - sharemywin 10y ago
    Sep05, 11' - 1154.23 Aug22,16' - 2181.67 up ~ 89% although, sept was down about 200 points from may and oct. And were only up 60% from the 07' peak.
- deleted 10y ago
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- sharemywin 10y ago
  But it's hard to know whether those valuations are real with quantitative easing and near 0% interest rates.

harryh 10y ago

Stocks are stagnating. * S&P500 YTD: Up 6.7% * S&P500 1 Year: Up 9.7% * S&P500 5 Year: Up 85.4%

vidarh 10y ago
(EDIT: Didn't notice that the emphasis in parent is a quote from grandparent. So consider the numbers below to further support parent rather than contradict it) Your numbers doesn't show that at all. 9.7% up in a year is roughly 0.775% average per month compounded. Assuming even growth through the year, which is obviously a simplification, to reach 9.7% at the end of the year you'd want to have appreciated 6.3% by now, so 6.7% doesn't sound all that bad. 85.4% over 5 years is roughly 13%/year compounded. Since 1950, the annualised average return of the S&P500 have fluctuated between -3.6% and 19.3% [1], so both the 1Y and 5Y are well within the norm. If 9.7% were to hold through a full decade, it'd still be far above the median per-decade averages. [1] http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-total-returns.htm http://www.simplestockinvesting.com/SP500-historical-real-to...
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- vecinu 10y ago
  I think you're missing the fact that the OP was responding to "rm -rf /" and saying that stocks have not been stagnating.
  - vidarh 10y ago
    Ah, yes, I didn't notice that the emphasis was meant to be a quote. Thanks.
- readams 10y ago
  I'm pretty sure his numbers were intended to show that stock returns are currently very healthy and not stagnating.
- sharemywin 10y ago
  Sep05, 11' - 1154.23 Aug22,16' - 2181.67 up ~ 89% although, sept was down about 200 points from may and oct. And were only up 60% from the 07' peak.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
sharemywin 10y ago
But it's hard to know whether those valuations are real with quantitative easing and near 0% interest rates.