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Yeah. Many people who are into BI are unwilling to admit its a very expensive proposition that they insist will be fixed with "economic growth". Its the same h
by fweespeech 10y ago
Yeah.
Many people who are into BI are unwilling to admit its a very expensive proposition that they insist will be fixed with "economic growth". Its the same handwaving the GOP does.
Perfect example:
There are 242,470,820 adults in the US.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-guaranteed-income-for-every-american-1464969586 http://www.wsj.com/articles/a-guaranteed-income-for-every-am...
> In my version, every American citizen age 21 and older would get a $13,000 annual grant deposited electronically into a bank account in monthly installments. Three thousand dollars must be used for health insurance (a complicated provision I won’t try to explain here), leaving every adult with $10,000 in disposable annual income for the rest of their lives.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_income_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Personal_income_in_the_United_...
~55% of people make $30k or less and would get the full grant. He proposes b/t 30k and 60k it drops to 50%. So lets just drop it for the other 45% to 7k (instead of $6500) to keep the numbers simple.
($13,000 * 242,470,820 * .55) + ($7,000 * 242,470,820 * .45) = $2.5 trillion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget#/media/File:U.S._Federal_Spending.png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_federal_budget#/...
The current budget is $3.7 trillion.
Healthcare + Social Security + Nondiscretionary Defense = 937+882+585 (billions) = $2.4 trillion. So you are already roughly at the same budget (despite his argument that isn't the case). Yes, he wants people 18-21 not to have access but that won't work in practice realistically some people get kicked out in this country at age 18 and have access to welfare.
The argument he makes is:
> The UBI is to be financed by getting rid of Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, food stamps, Supplemental Security Income, housing subsidies, welfare for single women and every other kind of welfare and social-services program, as well as agricultural subsidies and corporate welfare. As of 2014, the annual cost of a UBI would have been about $200 billion cheaper than the current system. By 2020, it would be nearly a trillion dollars cheaper.
Despite his age assumption & numbers being borderline unrealistic...
https://www.cms.gov/research-statistics-data-and-systems/statistics-trends-and-reports/nationalhealthexpenddata/nhe-fact-sheet.html https://www.cms.gov/research-statistics-data-and-systems/sta...
NHE per capita is ~$9,523. He wants insurance to cost $3,000, even if we magically assume 100% of that goes straight to payments. That extra $6,523 has to come from somewhere for people on Medicaid.
If you get a $13,000 grant, you basically lose (realistically) access to medical care with basic income beyond very basic care. (i.e. If you get cancer, no one will cover it so you die. If you get a possibly deadly chronic disease, you can't afford it, you die.)
http://kff.org/medicare/state-indicator/per-enrollee-spending-by-residence/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D http://kff.org/medicare/state-indicator/per-enrollee-spendin...
That is worse for Medicare enrollees which is ~$10.3k So they lose ~$7.3k worth of care.
Yes it is cheaper (using his math) but he doesn't explicitly explain the impact.
It pays for itself by:
1) Cutting income for those on social security to ~$1000. ( Realistically, for the elderly, with overhead for private insurance you are spending probably ~$12 for equivalent care)
2) Cutting medical care for those on welfare currently to $0. ( Realistically, you can't pay for the current level of medical care for the average person on this BI. )
3) Food costs will go up without subsidies, which will likely add $240 in annual costs (conservatively).
So its basically cutting Social Security to ~$750/year for the elderly and cutting medical care for those in poverty to the bare essentials. Similarly, at the rate of medical inflation, the "cheaper" is almost entirely sourced from killing Social Security or Medical Care (depending on how you look at it) but it'll get worse (assuming you are adjusting BI on the CPI).
And this is the most concrete article with numbers I could find in like 5 minutes of Googling it.
The rest were all hand wavy.
If you don't kill Medicaid/Medicare on that same proposal, and just reduce the subsidy by $3k:
($10,000 * 242,470,820 * .55) + ($5,000 * 242,470,820 * .45) = $1.88 trillion
If you drop Medicare/Medicaid the budget they can take the money from is only $1.467 trillion. So now its obvious where the money came from to save those billions.
- dragonwriter 10y ago> Many people who are into BI are unwilling to admit its a very expensive proposition A mature BI (one providing an above-poverty-line benefit) is an expensive proposition, but you don't need a mature BI, or one that replaces all the programs you'd like to replace with one, to get net social benefit from it. So you start with a small BI, and phase out the things it is eventually planned to phase out only as the BI benefit makes the existing program irrelevant. (Until then, you just treat the BI as income when calculating benefit for the existing programs.) To do this, you establish a funding stream that is expected to grow with economic growth, and let the funding stream (basically; using a formula that cushions fluctuations so that short-term downturns don't lead to BI cuts), including prior year savings from reductions in other programs due to the BI along with tax collections in the "funding stream" calculations -- determine the BI level.
- fweespeech 10y ago> A mature BI (one providing an above-poverty-line benefit) is an expensive proposition That was below-poverty-line benefits as defined by existing law. Its $10k income with a $3k mandatory payment for the equivalent of Medicaid/insurance. The poverty line at the moment is ~$11k + Medicaid. https://www.healthcare.gov/glossary/federal-poverty-level-FPL/ https://www.healthcare.gov/glossary/federal-poverty-level-FP...
- dragonwriter 10y ago> That was below-poverty-line benefits as defined by existing law. Its way above the poverty line for any household size greater than 1. ($11,880 + $4,140-4,160 per additional member) [0] [0] https://aspe.hhs.gov/poverty-guidelines https://aspe.hhs.gov/poverty-guidelines
- fweespeech 10y agoYou are ignoring Medicaid which the article plans to cut. http://kff.org/medicaid/state-indicator/medicaid-spending-per-enrollee/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel=%7B%22colId%22:%22Location%22,%22sort%22:%22asc%22%7D http://kff.org/medicaid/state-indicator/medicaid-spending-pe... That is ~$6k of benefits per person. So lets say two adults for $26k with $12k in lost benefits is ~$14k. The poverty line is $16k.