6 ms·

china gdp per capita even as it becomes the worlds larget economy this year is only $6,807. Their growth rate is not going to slow or deviate significantly in

by mSparks 10y ago

china gdp per capita even as it becomes the worlds larget economy this year is only $6,807. Their growth rate is not going to slow or deviate significantly in our lifetimes. Yes, I've seen the arguments to the contrary. But they are all based on wholly flawed assumptions. the op is "Why China won’t own next-generation manufacturing". Well. the worlds fastest super computers are what deliver next-generation manufacturing. As for massively behind the us in nuclear capability. Not for long. They already poached the US's best talent. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/542526/china-details-next-gen-nuclear-reactor-program/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/542526/china-details-next...

learc83 10y ago
>Their growth rate is not going to slow or deviate significantly in our lifetimes I'm not sure what you're basing your projections on, but China's growth rate has been heading down for the past decade. They are currently at half of their max GDP growth rate. There are zero serious forecasts that show a constant ~7% growth rate for the next 50 years (based on your our lifetimes quote). That is insanely optimistic beyond even the dreams of the Chinese government. >Yes, I've seen the arguments to the contrary. But they are all based on wholly flawed assumptions. Again, any evidence that doesn't fit your narrative is rejected. >Well. the worlds fastest super computers are what deliver next-generation manufacturing. That's not even remotely close to true. Next generation manufacturing will primarily be driven by advances in automation that have little to do with super computers. The world's fastest super computers aren't even close to the largest factor in advancing manufacturing methods. >Not for long. They already poached the US's best talent. That article doesn't show anything except that a group in China has a goal of commercial molten salt reactors by 2030. According to the article they didn't even have funding yet past next year. Stop posting random tangentially related articles that don't prove your point. Seriously are you just trolling me? You really believe that China's growth rate won't slow over the next 50 years? That's completely insane.
- mSparks 10y ago
  I'm not sure what you're basing your projections on, but China's growth rate has been heading down for the past decade. They are currently at half of their max GDP growth rate. lower growth last years was policy -prevent "overheating". http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/chinas-overheating-economy-stokes-fears-for-global-inflation-2190283.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/chinas-overh... now it isnt http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/cash-reserve-ratio http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/cash-reserve-ratio still have something like 20 or 30 years left before they reach their urbanisation goals. And things dont stop there.
  - endswapper 10y ago
    Your out of date and worthless references don't do you, or anyone else any favors here. The article from 2011 about China overheating is laughable. China's economic numbers have long been known to be fiction, regardless of the truth or facts that may play a small part in their creation. http://www.economist.com/news/china/21689628-chinas-obsession-gdp-targets-threatens-its-economy-grossly-deceptive-plans http://www.economist.com/news/china/21689628-chinas-obsessio... http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303448104579152181633939984 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014240527023034481045791521... Current articles about energy oversupply only reinforce, in a current context, the fact that their GDP, growth and other financial numbers are fabricated: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/china-energy-giant-signals-nation-s-fuel-oversupply-is-worsening http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/china-ener... The only way to understand Chinese financial conditions is through hindsight. This is problematic for the global economy, but it's even more problematic for China. While their resources are massive, they are not infinite. The point is that it is not sustainable and eventually they will be forced to operate in reality and communicate their reality.
    - mSparks 10y ago
      Not sure what you mean by "out of date" in 2011 they launched a policy of reducing growth by raising the reserve ratio massively, they are targeting "high single digit growth". That growth is all mostly coming from the urbanisation policy. from 98% of the population living and working in the paddy fields a few decades ago to their target of 90% living in modern super cities. They can literally double their output from now simply by spreading technology from the early 1900s, rather than pure manual labor. But they are going straight for "next-generation manufacturing". "Energy oversupply", "city oversupply"... Those would be those "flawed assumptions" I was talking about. Its only "oversupply" if you think it impossible they get from the 56% urbanisation rate they are currently at, to somewhere near the 95% urbanisation rate of countries like the USA. Which is the current policy. And pretty much anything is much much more productive than picking rice from a paddy field by hand, which is the current working day of 46% of the Chinese population - more than 600 million people - or twice the population of the US. http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/publication/urban-china-toward-efficient-inclusive-sustainable-urbanization http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/publication/urban-... By 2030, up to 70% of the Chinese population - some one billion - will be living in cities.

by mSparks 10y ago

learc83 10y ago

>Their growth rate is not going to slow or deviate significantly in our lifetimes I'm not sure what you're basing your projections on, but China's growth rate has been heading down for the past decade. They are currently at half of their max GDP growth rate. There are zero serious forecasts that show a constant ~7% growth rate for the next 50 years (based on your our lifetimes quote). That is insanely optimistic beyond even the dreams of the Chinese government. >Yes, I've seen the arguments to the contrary. But they are all based on wholly flawed assumptions. Again, any evidence that doesn't fit your narrative is rejected. >Well. the worlds fastest super computers are what deliver next-generation manufacturing. That's not even remotely close to true. Next generation manufacturing will primarily be driven by advances in automation that have little to do with super computers. The world's fastest super computers aren't even close to the largest factor in advancing manufacturing methods. >Not for long. They already poached the US's best talent. That article doesn't show anything except that a group in China has a goal of commercial molten salt reactors by 2030. According to the article they didn't even have funding yet past next year. Stop posting random tangentially related articles that don't prove your point. Seriously are you just trolling me? You really believe that China's growth rate won't slow over the next 50 years? That's completely insane.

mSparks 10y ago
I'm not sure what you're basing your projections on, but China's growth rate has been heading down for the past decade. They are currently at half of their max GDP growth rate. lower growth last years was policy -prevent "overheating". http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/chinas-overheating-economy-stokes-fears-for-global-inflation-2190283.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/chinas-overh... now it isnt http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/cash-reserve-ratio http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/cash-reserve-ratio still have something like 20 or 30 years left before they reach their urbanisation goals. And things dont stop there.
- endswapper 10y ago
  Your out of date and worthless references don't do you, or anyone else any favors here. The article from 2011 about China overheating is laughable. China's economic numbers have long been known to be fiction, regardless of the truth or facts that may play a small part in their creation. http://www.economist.com/news/china/21689628-chinas-obsession-gdp-targets-threatens-its-economy-grossly-deceptive-plans http://www.economist.com/news/china/21689628-chinas-obsessio... http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303448104579152181633939984 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014240527023034481045791521... Current articles about energy oversupply only reinforce, in a current context, the fact that their GDP, growth and other financial numbers are fabricated: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/china-energy-giant-signals-nation-s-fuel-oversupply-is-worsening http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/china-ener... The only way to understand Chinese financial conditions is through hindsight. This is problematic for the global economy, but it's even more problematic for China. While their resources are massive, they are not infinite. The point is that it is not sustainable and eventually they will be forced to operate in reality and communicate their reality.
  - mSparks 10y ago
    Not sure what you mean by "out of date" in 2011 they launched a policy of reducing growth by raising the reserve ratio massively, they are targeting "high single digit growth". That growth is all mostly coming from the urbanisation policy. from 98% of the population living and working in the paddy fields a few decades ago to their target of 90% living in modern super cities. They can literally double their output from now simply by spreading technology from the early 1900s, rather than pure manual labor. But they are going straight for "next-generation manufacturing". "Energy oversupply", "city oversupply"... Those would be those "flawed assumptions" I was talking about. Its only "oversupply" if you think it impossible they get from the 56% urbanisation rate they are currently at, to somewhere near the 95% urbanisation rate of countries like the USA. Which is the current policy. And pretty much anything is much much more productive than picking rice from a paddy field by hand, which is the current working day of 46% of the Chinese population - more than 600 million people - or twice the population of the US. http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/publication/urban-china-toward-efficient-inclusive-sustainable-urbanization http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/publication/urban-... By 2030, up to 70% of the Chinese population - some one billion - will be living in cities.