4 ms·

China is paying Russia about a bit more than $10 billion a year for that deal. Even if some of that money is going for weapons, the US is still doing much more

by learc83 10y ago

China is paying Russia about a bit more than $10 billion a year for that deal. Even if some of that money is going for weapons, the US is still doing much more in total arms sales than Russia. I'm not sure why I bothered responding, because I'm sure you'll reply with something about how they are really paying much more than that under the table (even though no reputable news sources have reported on it). It's clear to reasonable people that neither the USSR, nor Japan destroyed the US economy. China will not destroy the US economy either. This fear of China is caused by inappropriately extrapolating current trends, i.e., China is growing at 7% per year, and this rate will continue unabated despite that fact that historically GDP growth rate always declines as a country becomes developed. As to your earlier assertions about super computers, those numbers are close to meaningless. The UAE has the world's tallest building, should we be afraid of that? If the UK wanted to build the world's fastest super computer, they could. If the US wanted to we could. It's just a dick measuring contest that is primarily a function of how much money a country currently wants to spend on building them. The only thing faster super computers prove is that they are simply worth more to China than they are to us. They are massively behind us in nuclear capability, so the ability to conduct simulated nuclear testing is more valuable to them. The PR win is also correspondingly more valuable to them.

mSparks 10y ago
china gdp per capita even as it becomes the worlds larget economy this year is only $6,807. Their growth rate is not going to slow or deviate significantly in our lifetimes. Yes, I've seen the arguments to the contrary. But they are all based on wholly flawed assumptions. the op is "Why China won’t own next-generation manufacturing". Well. the worlds fastest super computers are what deliver next-generation manufacturing. As for massively behind the us in nuclear capability. Not for long. They already poached the US's best talent. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/542526/china-details-next-gen-nuclear-reactor-program/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/542526/china-details-next...
- learc83 10y ago
  >Their growth rate is not going to slow or deviate significantly in our lifetimes I'm not sure what you're basing your projections on, but China's growth rate has been heading down for the past decade. They are currently at half of their max GDP growth rate. There are zero serious forecasts that show a constant ~7% growth rate for the next 50 years (based on your our lifetimes quote). That is insanely optimistic beyond even the dreams of the Chinese government. >Yes, I've seen the arguments to the contrary. But they are all based on wholly flawed assumptions. Again, any evidence that doesn't fit your narrative is rejected. >Well. the worlds fastest super computers are what deliver next-generation manufacturing. That's not even remotely close to true. Next generation manufacturing will primarily be driven by advances in automation that have little to do with super computers. The world's fastest super computers aren't even close to the largest factor in advancing manufacturing methods. >Not for long. They already poached the US's best talent. That article doesn't show anything except that a group in China has a goal of commercial molten salt reactors by 2030. According to the article they didn't even have funding yet past next year. Stop posting random tangentially related articles that don't prove your point. Seriously are you just trolling me? You really believe that China's growth rate won't slow over the next 50 years? That's completely insane.
  - mSparks 10y ago
    I'm not sure what you're basing your projections on, but China's growth rate has been heading down for the past decade. They are currently at half of their max GDP growth rate. lower growth last years was policy -prevent "overheating". http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/chinas-overheating-economy-stokes-fears-for-global-inflation-2190283.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/chinas-overh... now it isnt http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/cash-reserve-ratio http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/cash-reserve-ratio still have something like 20 or 30 years left before they reach their urbanisation goals. And things dont stop there.
    - endswapper 10y ago
      Your out of date and worthless references don't do you, or anyone else any favors here. The article from 2011 about China overheating is laughable. China's economic numbers have long been known to be fiction, regardless of the truth or facts that may play a small part in their creation. http://www.economist.com/news/china/21689628-chinas-obsession-gdp-targets-threatens-its-economy-grossly-deceptive-plans http://www.economist.com/news/china/21689628-chinas-obsessio... http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303448104579152181633939984 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014240527023034481045791521... Current articles about energy oversupply only reinforce, in a current context, the fact that their GDP, growth and other financial numbers are fabricated: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/china-energy-giant-signals-nation-s-fuel-oversupply-is-worsening http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/china-ener... The only way to understand Chinese financial conditions is through hindsight. This is problematic for the global economy, but it's even more problematic for China. While their resources are massive, they are not infinite. The point is that it is not sustainable and eventually they will be forced to operate in reality and communicate their reality.

by learc83 10y ago

mSparks 10y ago

china gdp per capita even as it becomes the worlds larget economy this year is only $6,807. Their growth rate is not going to slow or deviate significantly in our lifetimes. Yes, I've seen the arguments to the contrary. But they are all based on wholly flawed assumptions. the op is "Why China won’t own next-generation manufacturing". Well. the worlds fastest super computers are what deliver next-generation manufacturing. As for massively behind the us in nuclear capability. Not for long. They already poached the US's best talent. https://www.technologyreview.com/s/542526/china-details-next-gen-nuclear-reactor-program/ https://www.technologyreview.com/s/542526/china-details-next...

learc83 10y ago
>Their growth rate is not going to slow or deviate significantly in our lifetimes I'm not sure what you're basing your projections on, but China's growth rate has been heading down for the past decade. They are currently at half of their max GDP growth rate. There are zero serious forecasts that show a constant ~7% growth rate for the next 50 years (based on your our lifetimes quote). That is insanely optimistic beyond even the dreams of the Chinese government. >Yes, I've seen the arguments to the contrary. But they are all based on wholly flawed assumptions. Again, any evidence that doesn't fit your narrative is rejected. >Well. the worlds fastest super computers are what deliver next-generation manufacturing. That's not even remotely close to true. Next generation manufacturing will primarily be driven by advances in automation that have little to do with super computers. The world's fastest super computers aren't even close to the largest factor in advancing manufacturing methods. >Not for long. They already poached the US's best talent. That article doesn't show anything except that a group in China has a goal of commercial molten salt reactors by 2030. According to the article they didn't even have funding yet past next year. Stop posting random tangentially related articles that don't prove your point. Seriously are you just trolling me? You really believe that China's growth rate won't slow over the next 50 years? That's completely insane.
- mSparks 10y ago
  I'm not sure what you're basing your projections on, but China's growth rate has been heading down for the past decade. They are currently at half of their max GDP growth rate. lower growth last years was policy -prevent "overheating". http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/chinas-overheating-economy-stokes-fears-for-global-inflation-2190283.html http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/chinas-overh... now it isnt http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/cash-reserve-ratio http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/cash-reserve-ratio still have something like 20 or 30 years left before they reach their urbanisation goals. And things dont stop there.
  - endswapper 10y ago
    Your out of date and worthless references don't do you, or anyone else any favors here. The article from 2011 about China overheating is laughable. China's economic numbers have long been known to be fiction, regardless of the truth or facts that may play a small part in their creation. http://www.economist.com/news/china/21689628-chinas-obsession-gdp-targets-threatens-its-economy-grossly-deceptive-plans http://www.economist.com/news/china/21689628-chinas-obsessio... http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303448104579152181633939984 http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB100014240527023034481045791521... Current articles about energy oversupply only reinforce, in a current context, the fact that their GDP, growth and other financial numbers are fabricated: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/china-energy-giant-signals-nation-s-fuel-oversupply-is-worsening http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-26/china-ener... The only way to understand Chinese financial conditions is through hindsight. This is problematic for the global economy, but it's even more problematic for China. While their resources are massive, they are not infinite. The point is that it is not sustainable and eventually they will be forced to operate in reality and communicate their reality.