Your analysis seems reasonable until you actually own an EV and see how little maintenance is required. I've had my LEAF for over two years and all I've needed

Your analysis seems reasonable until you actually own an EV and see how little maintenance is required. I've had my LEAF for over two years and all I've needed is tire rotation and tire replacement (due to pothole.) The brakes last way, way longer due to the motor picking up so much of the braking. The oil change places will die out as EVs pick up unless they are smart enough to install L3 charging stations and charge a small fee for their use.