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If you liked the sound of this article, there is even better news: * solar panel prices have dropped a whole lot in 2016 already. Chinese PV panels now cost a

If you liked the sound of this article, there is even better news: * solar panel prices have dropped a whole lot in 2016 already. Chinese PV panels now cost about 43 cents a watt. Production costs are around 37 cents a watt. (that's for Jinko Solar) * utility solar is seeing improvements in construction (more robots), cable management, medium voltage something or other at the power plant, etc. * China PV makers are moving to PERC and maybe more to Mono. This means a little more efficiency. First solar supposedly has their CdTe response. * be careful before you go and invest in solar. (FSLR, SPWR, JKS, CSIQ, JASO) As I learned, there is a coming shakeout in 2017. The long term extension of the ITC in the US ironically caused a slowdown in deployment b/c utilities are no longer under the gun to receive the ITC. China also lowered their subsidies for the second half of 2016. Meanwhile PV makers increased production.

Filligree 10y ago
> * solar panel prices have dropped a whole lot in 2016 already. Chinese PV panels now cost about 43 cents a watt. Production costs are around 37 cents a watt. (that's for Jinko Solar) However, a 140-watt panel would cost me 362 dollars back home, which is 250 cents per watt: http://www.sunwind.no/product/show/?id=1297 http://www.sunwind.no/product/show/?id=1297 Where exactly are these oh-so-cheap panels supposedly sold?
- beefield 10y ago
  The usual place: http://www.aliexpress.com/item/solar-panel-12v-50w-poly-2-pcs-lot-panneau-solaire-100w-18v-mini-off-grid-solar/32663864355.html http://www.aliexpress.com/item/solar-panel-12v-50w-poly-2-pc...
  - STRML 10y ago
    That seems great at 50 cents per watt, but the shipping is another 91 cents per watt. Good place to start looking though.
    - beefield 10y ago
      I have thought (never tried, though) that large shipping costs in Aliexpress are indicator that supplier wants to discuss the true shipping cost with buyer. Note also that at least in EU you need to add customs and VAT. And you can't expect always getting top quality if you order the cheapest you can find in Aliexpress. Again, in EU, it might be easier to buy e.g. this: http://www.ev-power.eu/Solar-Panels/Solar-panel-GWL-Sunny-Poly-260Wp-60-cells-MPPT-30V-OMP260.html http://www.ev-power.eu/Solar-Panels/Solar-panel-GWL-Sunny-Po... (plus VAT, but already in EU)
- reportingsjr 10y ago
  If you want good prices you need to buy a whole pallet or more of panels: http://sunelec.com/solar-panels http://sunelec.com/solar-panels
- grecy 10y ago
  Renogy has 100W panels for $145 stateside https://www.renogy.com/renogy-100-watt-12-volt-polycrystalline-solar-panel/ https://www.renogy.com/renogy-100-watt-12-volt-polycrystalli...
- jakub_h 10y ago
  140 W is probably not the cheapest-per-watt panel format. Why don't you visit Germany with a van?
- pjc50 10y ago
  I tried the first hit on UK ebay and got £105 with free delivery ($137, almost exactly one dollar per watt) http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/NEW-140W-12v-Energy-Solar-Panel-Polycrystalline-MC4-Connectors-TUV-ISO-UK-/401155982359?hash=item5d66c28417:g:TSEAAOxyeZNTQBMB http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/NEW-140W-12v-Energy-Solar-Panel-Po... There must be cheaper panels available in the US.
dshipper 10y ago
I'm very interested in reading more about your last point. Where did you hear about this shakeout? Will it affect companies had invest in solar projects like Wunder?
subtenante 10y ago
Chinese PV are made in a country where electrcity is mainly produced with coal. All construction carbon emission taken into acount, they need around 30 years of use to get carbon neutral, generally more than their expected life time. This is not sustainable at all yet.
- sfifs 10y ago
  That country needs to move away from coal as fast as possible for public health reasons and know it. So they'll build massive production capacity anyway irrespective of carbon neutrality etc. (and we in the rest of the world will benefit) China already has the biggest hydro electric project and I to see massive installations in China for Solar, Wind and Nuclear to combat their air pollution and health problems
  - Tharkun 10y ago
    'That country'? So does the rest of the world...
- maxerickson 10y ago
  What study says that? These fliers both say less than 5 years for energy payback (as little as 6 months...): http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35489.pdf http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35489.pdf http://www.clca.columbia.edu/236_PE_Magazine_Fthenakis_2_10_12.pdf http://www.clca.columbia.edu/236_PE_Magazine_Fthenakis_2_10_... It doesn't make any sense that China would be subsidizing their panel manufacturers to the extent you are implying.
  - kevin_thibedeau 10y ago
    Energy payback is not the same as carbon neutrality. The former only accounts for the economic value within a regional market and ignores externalities.
    - maxerickson 10y ago
      Sure but if the energy return is 15x the energy investment, carbon neutrality is pretty likely.
rz2k 10y ago
Re: investing in solar producers and a coming shakeout This makes me think of some interesting structural economic issues I hadn't considered before. Compared to the global distribution networks of hydrocarbons, distributing PV panels is uncomplicated and a lot less bulky. On the other hand consolidation in the industry and eventual economies in scale of production could point to less diversification at the lowest levels of supply compared to a system where individual wildcatters, new tech like fracking, and even cartel members (and outlaws/terrorists) undermining their quotas have a not insignificant effect on the cycles of energy pricing and supply. Even technology with a well-defined trend toward decreasing prices like RAM or hard drives have this complication if you need to make your purchases right after floods in Thailand, or at the wrong time when a standards for RAM are coming into effect or stopping production. With a small number of huge suppliers, and decades long replacement cycles leading to boom and bust cycles for the industry, it could be as difficult for users to plan energy supply needs as it has been when it comes from mismanaged areas of the world.

Filligree 10y ago

> * solar panel prices have dropped a whole lot in 2016 already. Chinese PV panels now cost about 43 cents a watt. Production costs are around 37 cents a watt. (that's for Jinko Solar) However, a 140-watt panel would cost me 362 dollars back home, which is 250 cents per watt: http://www.sunwind.no/product/show/?id=1297 http://www.sunwind.no/product/show/?id=1297 Where exactly are these oh-so-cheap panels supposedly sold?

beefield 10y ago
The usual place: http://www.aliexpress.com/item/solar-panel-12v-50w-poly-2-pcs-lot-panneau-solaire-100w-18v-mini-off-grid-solar/32663864355.html http://www.aliexpress.com/item/solar-panel-12v-50w-poly-2-pc...
- STRML 10y ago
  That seems great at 50 cents per watt, but the shipping is another 91 cents per watt. Good place to start looking though.
  - beefield 10y ago
    I have thought (never tried, though) that large shipping costs in Aliexpress are indicator that supplier wants to discuss the true shipping cost with buyer. Note also that at least in EU you need to add customs and VAT. And you can't expect always getting top quality if you order the cheapest you can find in Aliexpress. Again, in EU, it might be easier to buy e.g. this: http://www.ev-power.eu/Solar-Panels/Solar-panel-GWL-Sunny-Poly-260Wp-60-cells-MPPT-30V-OMP260.html http://www.ev-power.eu/Solar-Panels/Solar-panel-GWL-Sunny-Po... (plus VAT, but already in EU)
reportingsjr 10y ago
If you want good prices you need to buy a whole pallet or more of panels: http://sunelec.com/solar-panels http://sunelec.com/solar-panels
grecy 10y ago
Renogy has 100W panels for $145 stateside https://www.renogy.com/renogy-100-watt-12-volt-polycrystalline-solar-panel/ https://www.renogy.com/renogy-100-watt-12-volt-polycrystalli...
jakub_h 10y ago
140 W is probably not the cheapest-per-watt panel format. Why don't you visit Germany with a van?
pjc50 10y ago
I tried the first hit on UK ebay and got £105 with free delivery ($137, almost exactly one dollar per watt) http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/NEW-140W-12v-Energy-Solar-Panel-Polycrystalline-MC4-Connectors-TUV-ISO-UK-/401155982359?hash=item5d66c28417:g:TSEAAOxyeZNTQBMB http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/NEW-140W-12v-Energy-Solar-Panel-Po... There must be cheaper panels available in the US.

dshipper 10y ago

I'm very interested in reading more about your last point. Where did you hear about this shakeout? Will it affect companies had invest in solar projects like Wunder?

subtenante 10y ago

Chinese PV are made in a country where electrcity is mainly produced with coal. All construction carbon emission taken into acount, they need around 30 years of use to get carbon neutral, generally more than their expected life time. This is not sustainable at all yet.

sfifs 10y ago
That country needs to move away from coal as fast as possible for public health reasons and know it. So they'll build massive production capacity anyway irrespective of carbon neutrality etc. (and we in the rest of the world will benefit) China already has the biggest hydro electric project and I to see massive installations in China for Solar, Wind and Nuclear to combat their air pollution and health problems
- Tharkun 10y ago
  'That country'? So does the rest of the world...
maxerickson 10y ago
What study says that? These fliers both say less than 5 years for energy payback (as little as 6 months...): http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35489.pdf http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy04osti/35489.pdf http://www.clca.columbia.edu/236_PE_Magazine_Fthenakis_2_10_12.pdf http://www.clca.columbia.edu/236_PE_Magazine_Fthenakis_2_10_... It doesn't make any sense that China would be subsidizing their panel manufacturers to the extent you are implying.
- kevin_thibedeau 10y ago
  Energy payback is not the same as carbon neutrality. The former only accounts for the economic value within a regional market and ignores externalities.
  - maxerickson 10y ago
    Sure but if the energy return is 15x the energy investment, carbon neutrality is pretty likely.

rz2k 10y ago

Re: investing in solar producers and a coming shakeout This makes me think of some interesting structural economic issues I hadn't considered before. Compared to the global distribution networks of hydrocarbons, distributing PV panels is uncomplicated and a lot less bulky. On the other hand consolidation in the industry and eventual economies in scale of production could point to less diversification at the lowest levels of supply compared to a system where individual wildcatters, new tech like fracking, and even cartel members (and outlaws/terrorists) undermining their quotas have a not insignificant effect on the cycles of energy pricing and supply. Even technology with a well-defined trend toward decreasing prices like RAM or hard drives have this complication if you need to make your purchases right after floods in Thailand, or at the wrong time when a standards for RAM are coming into effect or stopping production. With a small number of huge suppliers, and decades long replacement cycles leading to boom and bust cycles for the industry, it could be as difficult for users to plan energy supply needs as it has been when it comes from mismanaged areas of the world.