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Sounds like this article is bunk from the comments, but I have simple answer for why they won't own it, or at least why it won't even matter: Automation. With a

by hacknat 10y ago

Sounds like this article is bunk from the comments, but I have simple answer for why they won't own it, or at least why it won't even matter: Automation. With automation eating labor to the core, the supply chain (cheap as it is, though time in the supply chain costs money too) will be the next thing to be eaten. I think we're going to see a much more distributed model of manufacturing in the future and it will involve precious little labor.

tingbadimalo 10y ago
This is actually precisely the point of the article
yourapostasy 10y ago
The US offshored so much of its manufacturing, I have to wonder if there is sufficient critical mass of knowledge, people, infrastructure, etc. left to effectively automate. Or if American firms will instead buy solutions from Chinese automation companies, and the US ends up ceding the large-scale (or even decentralized distributed-scale) automated manufacturing future to China as well. This could leave the US performing very high-end manufacturing requiring lots of labor input, but what happens when what the Chinese firms learned with automation in the lower-end manufacturing is used to encroach on this high-end? Bunnie Huang pointed out the very ecosystem of lots of manufacturers in close physical proximity to each in China other enables them to try different ideas, failing fast and cheaply (the dual SIM feature came out of such freewheeling experimentation). Can the US automate if it has gaps in its own manufacturing capabilities having let it atrophy for so many decades, or are US business leaders assuming a future where they are always purchasing "lower-end" manufactured parts from the next China (and if they are, how are they ensuring those "lower-end" manufacturers don't climb up the value ladder and take their market from them)?
- hacknat 10y ago
  It's an interesting hypothesis, but it presumes all engineering for manufacturing is done in China, which is usually not the case. It was my impression most manufacturing in China is "offshored" by American firms. I have no idea what the actual stats are though, so it'd be tough to say one way or another.
- blahi 10y ago
  Are you fucking kidding me? How do you even come up with this stuff? Let me tell you some facts: Manufacturing is the US largest sector by output. Larger than real estate. Larger than finance . Larger than software. And larger than retail. In fact, it is larger than all of those combined. It is more than 35% of the whole US economy. It has only grown (in output) in the last 3 decades. It has accelerated its growth in the last decade. It is at a record since the recession. It accounts for close to 80% of R&D spending. It has opened the most jobs since the recession.

by hacknat 10y ago

tingbadimalo 10y ago

This is actually precisely the point of the article

yourapostasy 10y ago

The US offshored so much of its manufacturing, I have to wonder if there is sufficient critical mass of knowledge, people, infrastructure, etc. left to effectively automate. Or if American firms will instead buy solutions from Chinese automation companies, and the US ends up ceding the large-scale (or even decentralized distributed-scale) automated manufacturing future to China as well. This could leave the US performing very high-end manufacturing requiring lots of labor input, but what happens when what the Chinese firms learned with automation in the lower-end manufacturing is used to encroach on this high-end? Bunnie Huang pointed out the very ecosystem of lots of manufacturers in close physical proximity to each in China other enables them to try different ideas, failing fast and cheaply (the dual SIM feature came out of such freewheeling experimentation). Can the US automate if it has gaps in its own manufacturing capabilities having let it atrophy for so many decades, or are US business leaders assuming a future where they are always purchasing "lower-end" manufactured parts from the next China (and if they are, how are they ensuring those "lower-end" manufacturers don't climb up the value ladder and take their market from them)?

hacknat 10y ago
It's an interesting hypothesis, but it presumes all engineering for manufacturing is done in China, which is usually not the case. It was my impression most manufacturing in China is "offshored" by American firms. I have no idea what the actual stats are though, so it'd be tough to say one way or another.
blahi 10y ago
Are you fucking kidding me? How do you even come up with this stuff? Let me tell you some facts: Manufacturing is the US largest sector by output. Larger than real estate. Larger than finance . Larger than software. And larger than retail. In fact, it is larger than all of those combined. It is more than 35% of the whole US economy. It has only grown (in output) in the last 3 decades. It has accelerated its growth in the last decade. It is at a record since the recession. It accounts for close to 80% of R&D spending. It has opened the most jobs since the recession.