>Past performance does not necessarily indicate future performance, and it should not be the only predictor, but to dismiss a fund's history as inconsequential

>Past performance does not necessarily indicate future performance, and it should not be the only predictor, but to dismiss a fund's history as inconsequential to its future is silly. I'm not dismissing it unconditionally, but I'm not going to believe it unless I see the data. What's the probability of a fund outperforming given it has outperformed the year before?