Ah, but there's another layer: each side would work hard to keep the other side as uncertain as possible about its own capabilities, since that makes the other

Ah, but there's another layer: each side would work hard to keep the other side as uncertain as possible about its own capabilities, since that makes the other side less likely to make the optimal decision (eg, they might start a war they can't win, or fail to start a war even though they would win if they did)