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Yeah I think barrier to entry is misunderstood as a technical attribute of a company. Of course it's possible to build some app that tells people nearby to pic

Yeah I think barrier to entry is misunderstood as a technical attribute of a company. Of course it's possible to build some app that tells people nearby to pick them up with metering/billing services built in. From a business standpoint, it would almost be impossible to duplicate what they have today.

maerF0x0 10y ago
at least not without a 10x improvement in some area. If someone can get the cost down to 1/10th or speed it up 10x etc, then uber may find itself down and out (or racing to catchup).
- rdl 10y ago
  If you're talking about scale: Just build an app which cherry-picks part of the market -- either specific users or specific locations or specific use cases -- and then fails back to Uber (automatically, or manually) when unavailable. i.e. I could build "the Uber for when you want to go out on a date and impress someone in the car" as an overlay service.
  - neosat 10y ago
    >> i.e. I could build "the Uber for when you want to go out on a date and impress someone in the car" as an overlay service. There is a service for that. It's called Uber Black.
methehack 10y ago
I entirely disagree. I don't see proprietary technology that can't be duplicated or bought. I see _some_ network effects but ultimately the drivers will go to the highest bidder and the riders will go to the lowest price. I see _some_ brand equity, but not much. Maybe a little economy of scale, but not much. Yes, they have a head start, but they are far from enthroned. Ultimately, this space will operationalize out to the company that can manufacture safe and reliable self-driving cars most efficiently. That's kind of how you can tell uber hasn't won yet: if a company came along that was doing that, it would eat their lunch. Further, faced with the awesome self-driving car company, uber's hungry huge capital needs thus far will be nothing but a burden. I believe they timed this all wrong -- they are myspace and in the wrong business.
- HillRat 10y ago
  Ultimately, this space will operationalize out to the company that can manufacture safe and reliable self-driving cars most efficiently. Assuming, of course, the fleet cap- and opex makes autonomous vehicles a more profitable proposition than driver share without fleet costs, and it gives them a competitive advantage over smaller autonomous taxi fleets. I'm curious what their internal projections look like in that regard.
- nicwolff 10y ago
  My points exactly – but I don't see how self-driving cars can ever work in midtown NYC without dedicated lanes. If you can't credibly pretend that you are willing to hit another vehicle, you'll just get cut off continuously; if you can't credibly pretend that you are willing to get hit, you can't change lanes. Self-driving cars can't do either – and will be the nemesis of hire drivers who will cut them off just to slow them down.
melvinmt 10y ago
Obligatory quote (I should write a blog post on this subject some day): "The most common cause of failure in leadership is produced by treating adaptive challenges as if they were technical problems" - Ron Heifetz

maerF0x0 10y ago

at least not without a 10x improvement in some area. If someone can get the cost down to 1/10th or speed it up 10x etc, then uber may find itself down and out (or racing to catchup).

rdl 10y ago
If you're talking about scale: Just build an app which cherry-picks part of the market -- either specific users or specific locations or specific use cases -- and then fails back to Uber (automatically, or manually) when unavailable. i.e. I could build "the Uber for when you want to go out on a date and impress someone in the car" as an overlay service.
- neosat 10y ago
  >> i.e. I could build "the Uber for when you want to go out on a date and impress someone in the car" as an overlay service. There is a service for that. It's called Uber Black.

methehack 10y ago

I entirely disagree. I don't see proprietary technology that can't be duplicated or bought. I see _some_ network effects but ultimately the drivers will go to the highest bidder and the riders will go to the lowest price. I see _some_ brand equity, but not much. Maybe a little economy of scale, but not much. Yes, they have a head start, but they are far from enthroned. Ultimately, this space will operationalize out to the company that can manufacture safe and reliable self-driving cars most efficiently. That's kind of how you can tell uber hasn't won yet: if a company came along that was doing that, it would eat their lunch. Further, faced with the awesome self-driving car company, uber's hungry huge capital needs thus far will be nothing but a burden. I believe they timed this all wrong -- they are myspace and in the wrong business.

HillRat 10y ago
Ultimately, this space will operationalize out to the company that can manufacture safe and reliable self-driving cars most efficiently. Assuming, of course, the fleet cap- and opex makes autonomous vehicles a more profitable proposition than driver share without fleet costs, and it gives them a competitive advantage over smaller autonomous taxi fleets. I'm curious what their internal projections look like in that regard.
nicwolff 10y ago
My points exactly – but I don't see how self-driving cars can ever work in midtown NYC without dedicated lanes. If you can't credibly pretend that you are willing to hit another vehicle, you'll just get cut off continuously; if you can't credibly pretend that you are willing to get hit, you can't change lanes. Self-driving cars can't do either – and will be the nemesis of hire drivers who will cut them off just to slow them down.

melvinmt 10y ago

Obligatory quote (I should write a blog post on this subject some day): "The most common cause of failure in leadership is produced by treating adaptive challenges as if they were technical problems" - Ron Heifetz