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> but now there seems to be no barrier to entry for any competing service except writing an app. Except network of drivers, network of riders with the app inst

> but now there seems to be no barrier to entry for any competing service except writing an app. Except network of drivers, network of riders with the app installed, name recognition, capital to run the backend systems and delve into mapping algorithms, etc.

capkutay 10y ago
Yeah I think barrier to entry is misunderstood as a technical attribute of a company. Of course it's possible to build some app that tells people nearby to pick them up with metering/billing services built in. From a business standpoint, it would almost be impossible to duplicate what they have today.
- maerF0x0 10y ago
  at least not without a 10x improvement in some area. If someone can get the cost down to 1/10th or speed it up 10x etc, then uber may find itself down and out (or racing to catchup).
  - rdl 10y ago
    If you're talking about scale: Just build an app which cherry-picks part of the market -- either specific users or specific locations or specific use cases -- and then fails back to Uber (automatically, or manually) when unavailable. i.e. I could build "the Uber for when you want to go out on a date and impress someone in the car" as an overlay service.
    - neosat 10y ago
      >> i.e. I could build "the Uber for when you want to go out on a date and impress someone in the car" as an overlay service. There is a service for that. It's called Uber Black.
- methehack 10y ago
  I entirely disagree. I don't see proprietary technology that can't be duplicated or bought. I see _some_ network effects but ultimately the drivers will go to the highest bidder and the riders will go to the lowest price. I see _some_ brand equity, but not much. Maybe a little economy of scale, but not much. Yes, they have a head start, but they are far from enthroned. Ultimately, this space will operationalize out to the company that can manufacture safe and reliable self-driving cars most efficiently. That's kind of how you can tell uber hasn't won yet: if a company came along that was doing that, it would eat their lunch. Further, faced with the awesome self-driving car company, uber's hungry huge capital needs thus far will be nothing but a burden. I believe they timed this all wrong -- they are myspace and in the wrong business.
  - HillRat 10y ago
    Ultimately, this space will operationalize out to the company that can manufacture safe and reliable self-driving cars most efficiently. Assuming, of course, the fleet cap- and opex makes autonomous vehicles a more profitable proposition than driver share without fleet costs, and it gives them a competitive advantage over smaller autonomous taxi fleets. I'm curious what their internal projections look like in that regard.
  - nicwolff 10y ago
    My points exactly – but I don't see how self-driving cars can ever work in midtown NYC without dedicated lanes. If you can't credibly pretend that you are willing to hit another vehicle, you'll just get cut off continuously; if you can't credibly pretend that you are willing to get hit, you can't change lanes. Self-driving cars can't do either – and will be the nemesis of hire drivers who will cut them off just to slow them down.
- melvinmt 10y ago
  Obligatory quote (I should write a blog post on this subject some day): "The most common cause of failure in leadership is produced by treating adaptive challenges as if they were technical problems" - Ron Heifetz
xkcd-sucks 10y ago
That's basically the barrier to entry of running a cab company minus the licensing fees.
nicwolff 10y ago
Almost every NYC Uber driver I've had recently has at least one of the other apps installed and picks up rides from whichever is offering the best driver incentives at the moment. And every Via and Juno driver I've asked bought their vehicle to drive for Uber and then switched. That's my point: Uber has done a lot of the hardest work for their competitors, but now has to match them on price or watch them eat away at their market. I don't see any strong network effect – what's the advantage to me as a passenger or driver of using Uber because you use Uber?
LordHumungous 10y ago
>Except network of drivers Good thing Uber has conveniently created that for you.

capkutay 10y ago

Yeah I think barrier to entry is misunderstood as a technical attribute of a company. Of course it's possible to build some app that tells people nearby to pick them up with metering/billing services built in. From a business standpoint, it would almost be impossible to duplicate what they have today.

maerF0x0 10y ago
at least not without a 10x improvement in some area. If someone can get the cost down to 1/10th or speed it up 10x etc, then uber may find itself down and out (or racing to catchup).
- rdl 10y ago
  If you're talking about scale: Just build an app which cherry-picks part of the market -- either specific users or specific locations or specific use cases -- and then fails back to Uber (automatically, or manually) when unavailable. i.e. I could build "the Uber for when you want to go out on a date and impress someone in the car" as an overlay service.
  - neosat 10y ago
    >> i.e. I could build "the Uber for when you want to go out on a date and impress someone in the car" as an overlay service. There is a service for that. It's called Uber Black.
methehack 10y ago
I entirely disagree. I don't see proprietary technology that can't be duplicated or bought. I see _some_ network effects but ultimately the drivers will go to the highest bidder and the riders will go to the lowest price. I see _some_ brand equity, but not much. Maybe a little economy of scale, but not much. Yes, they have a head start, but they are far from enthroned. Ultimately, this space will operationalize out to the company that can manufacture safe and reliable self-driving cars most efficiently. That's kind of how you can tell uber hasn't won yet: if a company came along that was doing that, it would eat their lunch. Further, faced with the awesome self-driving car company, uber's hungry huge capital needs thus far will be nothing but a burden. I believe they timed this all wrong -- they are myspace and in the wrong business.
- HillRat 10y ago
  Ultimately, this space will operationalize out to the company that can manufacture safe and reliable self-driving cars most efficiently. Assuming, of course, the fleet cap- and opex makes autonomous vehicles a more profitable proposition than driver share without fleet costs, and it gives them a competitive advantage over smaller autonomous taxi fleets. I'm curious what their internal projections look like in that regard.
- nicwolff 10y ago
  My points exactly – but I don't see how self-driving cars can ever work in midtown NYC without dedicated lanes. If you can't credibly pretend that you are willing to hit another vehicle, you'll just get cut off continuously; if you can't credibly pretend that you are willing to get hit, you can't change lanes. Self-driving cars can't do either – and will be the nemesis of hire drivers who will cut them off just to slow them down.
melvinmt 10y ago
Obligatory quote (I should write a blog post on this subject some day): "The most common cause of failure in leadership is produced by treating adaptive challenges as if they were technical problems" - Ron Heifetz

xkcd-sucks 10y ago

That's basically the barrier to entry of running a cab company minus the licensing fees.

nicwolff 10y ago

Almost every NYC Uber driver I've had recently has at least one of the other apps installed and picks up rides from whichever is offering the best driver incentives at the moment. And every Via and Juno driver I've asked bought their vehicle to drive for Uber and then switched. That's my point: Uber has done a lot of the hardest work for their competitors, but now has to match them on price or watch them eat away at their market. I don't see any strong network effect – what's the advantage to me as a passenger or driver of using Uber because you use Uber?

LordHumungous 10y ago

>Except network of drivers Good thing Uber has conveniently created that for you.