4 ms·

The word "sustainable" in your reply is a joke when you consider the unsustainability of the automobile for single rider transit. Electric or not, it's a tough

by vwcx 10y ago

The word "sustainable" in your reply is a joke when you consider the unsustainability of the automobile for single rider transit. Electric or not, it's a tough sell compared to mass transit.

ricardobeat 10y ago
Not if one car serves, let's say, 200 people a day instead of a single owner.
- abduhl 10y ago
  One car serving 200 passengers a day is one passenger every 7.2 minutes. This equates to roughly 4 miles at 35 miles an hour. This assumes perfect routing and perfect loading/unloading (i.e. - the passenger magically appears and disappears in the car and that a new passenger is always ready to magically appear when the last one disappears). This seems rather short, and is a conservative estimate. These 800 miles would be reimbursed at $460 using the IRS mileage rate which is for gasoline vehicles, but assume that only 1/3 of that is gas and the other 2/3 is depreciation, wear/tear, licensing, etc. then we see that Uber would need to have each rider pay $1.53 just to break even on the cost of owning the vehicle. This ignores the fact that self-driving cars are likely to be much more expensive when it comes to non-gasoline costs. I believe I read somewhere today that the Teslas takes ~3mile/kWh so this cost would need to be added in, this is ~$0.07/mile at 20 cents per kWh. Total cost to break even is then roughly $1.80 per passenger, plus whatever additional costs a new and experimental all electric fleet with undefined insurance statistics costs above a regular vehicle. Assuming their current model of $8 per uberX ride is an example of what they expect to hit, then Uber is taking in $6.20 per passenger or $1240 per car per day or $452,600 per car per year assuming perfect efficiency. The question that really matters though is how will Uber's fleet deal with peak passenger demand? These 200 riders are not spaced out evenly at 7 minute intervals - most of them all will want to ride at the same time. People will stop using Uber if the waits become too long and Uber will lose its competitive advantage.

by vwcx 10y ago

The word "sustainable" in your reply is a joke when you consider the unsustainability of the automobile for single rider transit. Electric or not, it's a tough sell compared to mass transit.

ricardobeat 10y ago

Not if one car serves, let's say, 200 people a day instead of a single owner.

abduhl 10y ago
One car serving 200 passengers a day is one passenger every 7.2 minutes. This equates to roughly 4 miles at 35 miles an hour. This assumes perfect routing and perfect loading/unloading (i.e. - the passenger magically appears and disappears in the car and that a new passenger is always ready to magically appear when the last one disappears). This seems rather short, and is a conservative estimate. These 800 miles would be reimbursed at $460 using the IRS mileage rate which is for gasoline vehicles, but assume that only 1/3 of that is gas and the other 2/3 is depreciation, wear/tear, licensing, etc. then we see that Uber would need to have each rider pay $1.53 just to break even on the cost of owning the vehicle. This ignores the fact that self-driving cars are likely to be much more expensive when it comes to non-gasoline costs. I believe I read somewhere today that the Teslas takes ~3mile/kWh so this cost would need to be added in, this is ~$0.07/mile at 20 cents per kWh. Total cost to break even is then roughly $1.80 per passenger, plus whatever additional costs a new and experimental all electric fleet with undefined insurance statistics costs above a regular vehicle. Assuming their current model of $8 per uberX ride is an example of what they expect to hit, then Uber is taking in $6.20 per passenger or $1240 per car per day or $452,600 per car per year assuming perfect efficiency. The question that really matters though is how will Uber's fleet deal with peak passenger demand? These 200 riders are not spaced out evenly at 7 minute intervals - most of them all will want to ride at the same time. People will stop using Uber if the waits become too long and Uber will lose its competitive advantage.