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Note: still the top grossing app in the iOS App Store. As always, don't forget to put the scary raw numbers into context. 12 million out of 45 million means th

by BryantD 10y ago

Note: still the top grossing app in the iOS App Store. As always, don't forget to put the scary raw numbers into context. 12 million out of 45 million means they've retained 73% of their user base month over month. We can't derive actual retention numbers from that because new users, etc. but 15% is great month over month retention for a F2P mobile game. Assume Pokemon Go is doing that. That would mean 6.5M of their current user base stuck around since the beginning of August, and they picked up just under 25M new users in one month. I dunno about you, but I'd be really pleased if my new game got 25M new users in the second month after release. Not as good as the 45M I got in the first month, but that's not rationally sustainable. Time spent in game dropping is bad. DAU dropping is bad. I wouldn't spin this as good news. Niantic could absolutely be managing live operations much better. But click bait is click bait. If you're sitting here saying that it's failing because everyone you know stopped playing, you need to figure out how to make your mental model explain why it's still top grossing.

wsc981 10y ago
In august the game became available in Thailand, a potential huge new user base. Perhaps the game opened up in other parts of the world as well. This could mean the percentage of users playing dropped by a much bigger amount in existing countries.
- BryantD 10y ago
  Thailand is not a big mobile game marketplace in comparison to the US, China, Japan, or Europe. However, you make a good point -- the numbers lose even more context when they're not broken down by country, particularly when the launch was staggered. E.g., Pokemon Go launched in Japan on July 21st, which means any numbers captured at the beginning of August reflect initial launch volumes.
dade_ 10y ago
And some casual players, myself included, just haven't been keeping up on the constant app updates so it won't let me connect. I usually collect the little monsters on my evening walk or errands. It's amusing and I think they still have a great opportunity. Also amusing is visiting a certain message board to read posts that complain about a new application's features while most are doing agile development and releasing MVPs themselves.

by BryantD 10y ago

wsc981 10y ago

In august the game became available in Thailand, a potential huge new user base. Perhaps the game opened up in other parts of the world as well. This could mean the percentage of users playing dropped by a much bigger amount in existing countries.

BryantD 10y ago
Thailand is not a big mobile game marketplace in comparison to the US, China, Japan, or Europe. However, you make a good point -- the numbers lose even more context when they're not broken down by country, particularly when the launch was staggered. E.g., Pokemon Go launched in Japan on July 21st, which means any numbers captured at the beginning of August reflect initial launch volumes.

dade_ 10y ago

And some casual players, myself included, just haven't been keeping up on the constant app updates so it won't let me connect. I usually collect the little monsters on my evening walk or errands. It's amusing and I think they still have a great opportunity. Also amusing is visiting a certain message board to read posts that complain about a new application's features while most are doing agile development and releasing MVPs themselves.