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I think human systems are complex enough that the butterfly effect leads to inherit unpredictability that cannot be foretold by any model.
by crimsonalucard 10y ago
I think human systems are complex enough that the butterfly effect leads to inherit unpredictability that cannot be foretold by any model.
- drauh 10y agoThe climate system on Earth is subject to the butterfly effect, but we frequently have good-enough predictions, e.g. the stuff airline pilots rely on. When confronted with complexity, throwing up hands is not the correct response.
- lotyrin 10y agoThings can be imprecise, and can be modeled as such. Things can be chaotic, and can be modeled as such. Technologists tend to think in a binary between things that can be represented by a single number and those that can't, but that doesn't reflect reality but rather the common (limited) tools of our trade. Sometimes you've got to do a dot product of some distributions for possible values of future vectors, and you get a vague -- but still very real -- answer.