4 ms·

I'm pretty sure the answer is to retrain and/or go into a different profession.

by pfisch 10y ago

chrisbennet 10y ago
As a thought exercise, what will/would software developers do once 90% are made redundant by A.I. or something? Maybe "suck it up" and go back to school to become nurses?
- erklik 10y ago
  Yup. Or learn how to make A.I.'s ?? I don't know yet but basically find a different job. Its not that complicated actually.
  - allendoerfer 10y ago
    I am not saying this specifically to your comment, but to the whole thread: Not all people can accomplish the same performance. Most HN users were just lucky. I am not sure where I would be today if I had not been born into a college educated family, had college educated friends and so on. Not all people have the same luck. Beyond that there are different levels of intelligence or just inability to concentrate etc. There are people on the job market who write and read on a level you had when you were 10 years old. HN could really use some empathy. I would be ashamed if the cab driver, who actually lives next doors and gets up Friday and Saturday nights to drive drunk people home, because that's the only time you can make money here, would read this thread. When we talk about thousands of people we cannot just say "suck it up" and call it a day. HN should be the first to understand that the law of large numbers is at play here: People who do not want to work, will not matter for the whole group. If we do not want society to drift apart (which has enormous costs attached) we should solve the systemic issue.
    - ambicapter 10y ago
      > There are people on the job market who write and read on a level you had when you were 10 years old. 10 years old? Really? Do we expect those people to be useful? Why not just give them a basic income and take them out of the workforce?
      - allendoerfer 10y ago
        I was not making suggestions on what exactly we should do about them. I am just saying that they exist and that HN should avoid sounding like a dick by stating that they should just suck it up. To your questions: An easy example would be immigrants, who I imagine could definitely be useful for society and still be bad at writing a foreign language. Besides, many of the most important jobs there are do not require physics degrees but emotional intelligence and kindness. Everything that has to do with caring for living creatures. Many professions will disappear, but I expect these to be one of the last.
- pfisch 10y ago
  Well, if software developers are made redundant by AI then we have already transitioned to a new type of economy because virtually every other job has been replaced except service industry. If we are in some impossible world where that isn't true then I would say they should maybe go into medicine, engineering or law I guess. Your question is too open ended to answer really. I have like 10 follow up questions to understand the parameters of the original question.
  - chrisbennet 10y ago
    The question was meant as a thought exercise aimed at my fellow developers. I was hoping they would ask themselves, "What will I do once my field is disrupted?" I was hoping that they could feel a little empathy for others whose livelihood has been turned upside down. (I'm not directly responding to you, just your points which are typical responses.) The general response when faced with uncomfortable questions is to avoid facing it - a "it would never happen to me" sort of rationalization. Or it would be an "impossible world" where my field would be illuminated. Take "go into law" for example: I think the recent unemployment rate for new law graduates is something like 25%. Medicine is another field ripe for disruption (except nursing maybe). "Just get another job" is another popular "let's not really think about the unthinkable" response. It seems like many "answers" to the disruption problem boils down to "let them eat cake" and I was hoping to break through that.
    - naveen99 10y ago
      Why do you think medicine is ripe for disruption ? Unemployment rate for doctors is around 1%. The acceptance rate for medical school in the usa is 40%. developers and cabbies are welcome to retrain. To me, cabbies are local government employees. Let the government that licenses them pay them, just like they pay teachers and cops. So I am fine with this subsidy.
      - JoeAltmaier 10y ago
        Because of the tremendous shortage, as illustrated by that data. In fact home diagnosis apps were one of the first successful PC software products.
- JoshTriplett 10y ago
  > As a thought exercise, what will/would software developers do once 90% are made redundant by A.I. or something? An AI capable of doing 90% of the job of a software developer would likely be an AGI, and thus capable of doing 100% of the job of every human far better than the human can. At which point we stop worrying about details like "money" and "scarcity".
  - oblio 10y ago
    > At which point we stop worrying about details like "money" and "scarcity". And start worrying about Skynet and robots with lasers!
- eli_gottlieb 10y ago
  >As a thought exercise, what will/would software developers do once 90% are made redundant by A.I. or something? Teach the AIs the other 10%, and get killed by Terminators ;-).

I'm pretty sure the answer is to retrain and/or go into a different profession.

by pfisch 10y ago

I'm pretty sure the answer is to retrain and/or go into a different profession.

As a thought exercise, what will/would software developers do once 90% are made redundant by A.I. or something? Maybe "suck it up" and go back to school to become nurses?

erklik 10y ago
Yup. Or learn how to make A.I.'s ?? I don't know yet but basically find a different job. Its not that complicated actually.
- allendoerfer 10y ago
  I am not saying this specifically to your comment, but to the whole thread: Not all people can accomplish the same performance. Most HN users were just lucky. I am not sure where I would be today if I had not been born into a college educated family, had college educated friends and so on. Not all people have the same luck. Beyond that there are different levels of intelligence or just inability to concentrate etc. There are people on the job market who write and read on a level you had when you were 10 years old. HN could really use some empathy. I would be ashamed if the cab driver, who actually lives next doors and gets up Friday and Saturday nights to drive drunk people home, because that's the only time you can make money here, would read this thread. When we talk about thousands of people we cannot just say "suck it up" and call it a day. HN should be the first to understand that the law of large numbers is at play here: People who do not want to work, will not matter for the whole group. If we do not want society to drift apart (which has enormous costs attached) we should solve the systemic issue.
  - ambicapter 10y ago
    > There are people on the job market who write and read on a level you had when you were 10 years old. 10 years old? Really? Do we expect those people to be useful? Why not just give them a basic income and take them out of the workforce?
    - allendoerfer 10y ago
      I was not making suggestions on what exactly we should do about them. I am just saying that they exist and that HN should avoid sounding like a dick by stating that they should just suck it up. To your questions: An easy example would be immigrants, who I imagine could definitely be useful for society and still be bad at writing a foreign language. Besides, many of the most important jobs there are do not require physics degrees but emotional intelligence and kindness. Everything that has to do with caring for living creatures. Many professions will disappear, but I expect these to be one of the last.
pfisch 10y ago
Well, if software developers are made redundant by AI then we have already transitioned to a new type of economy because virtually every other job has been replaced except service industry. If we are in some impossible world where that isn't true then I would say they should maybe go into medicine, engineering or law I guess. Your question is too open ended to answer really. I have like 10 follow up questions to understand the parameters of the original question.
- chrisbennet 10y ago
  The question was meant as a thought exercise aimed at my fellow developers. I was hoping they would ask themselves, "What will I do once my field is disrupted?" I was hoping that they could feel a little empathy for others whose livelihood has been turned upside down. (I'm not directly responding to you, just your points which are typical responses.) The general response when faced with uncomfortable questions is to avoid facing it - a "it would never happen to me" sort of rationalization. Or it would be an "impossible world" where my field would be illuminated. Take "go into law" for example: I think the recent unemployment rate for new law graduates is something like 25%. Medicine is another field ripe for disruption (except nursing maybe). "Just get another job" is another popular "let's not really think about the unthinkable" response. It seems like many "answers" to the disruption problem boils down to "let them eat cake" and I was hoping to break through that.
  - naveen99 10y ago
    Why do you think medicine is ripe for disruption ? Unemployment rate for doctors is around 1%. The acceptance rate for medical school in the usa is 40%. developers and cabbies are welcome to retrain. To me, cabbies are local government employees. Let the government that licenses them pay them, just like they pay teachers and cops. So I am fine with this subsidy.
    - JoeAltmaier 10y ago
      Because of the tremendous shortage, as illustrated by that data. In fact home diagnosis apps were one of the first successful PC software products.
JoshTriplett 10y ago
> As a thought exercise, what will/would software developers do once 90% are made redundant by A.I. or something? An AI capable of doing 90% of the job of a software developer would likely be an AGI, and thus capable of doing 100% of the job of every human far better than the human can. At which point we stop worrying about details like "money" and "scarcity".
- oblio 10y ago
  > At which point we stop worrying about details like "money" and "scarcity". And start worrying about Skynet and robots with lasers!
eli_gottlieb 10y ago
>As a thought exercise, what will/would software developers do once 90% are made redundant by A.I. or something? Teach the AIs the other 10%, and get killed by Terminators ;-).