4 ms·

When self-drivers become the norm, taxi and truck drivers, and their families (a significant section of the economy) will be the first to suffer, but it will no

by edko 10y ago

When self-drivers become the norm, taxi and truck drivers, and their families (a significant section of the economy) will be the first to suffer, but it will not end there. The knock-on recessive effect on every other sector of the economy will be huge. Anyone thinking lightly along the lines of "truck drivers should adapt to the new economy", feeling safe for being in another industry, should remember how the housing crisis didn't just affect mortgage banks and the construction sector, but absolutely everyone, for many years.

cookiecaper 10y ago
We can't keep going with this type of attitude; it's blatantly anti-change. The government's job is not to ensure that everyone has comfortable finances. The government's job is to provide a framework that makes it possible and a structure that removes nefarious actors. As long as that's occurring, the economy is self-governing, and we shouldn't be propping up legacy economic sectors just because we feel bad for the people who are living paycheck-to-paycheck in them. The competitive virtue of capitalism is neutered by measures like this one and the affected sectors grow rancid, just as a gangrenous organ would. We have to allow the economy to work. If we believe in our people, we believe that drivers will be able to find something new that fits into the contemporary economic conditions instead of being dependent on state subsidies and political benevolence for survival. That new thing may be a massively beneficial development, that we'll never get to see if we insist on paying them a stipend for continued participation in an obsolete function.
- edko 10y ago
  Truck driver is the most common profession in most states. Self-driving trucks will make their jobs obsolete overnight. Imagine the immediate effect of all those people being without a job. What will happen to retail when those truckers buy less or stop buying? What will happen to wholesale shortly after? What will happen to all other industries? That truck drivers keep their jobs, or that they are gradually able to transition into new ones, is not just necessary not to feel bad about them, but to keep the whole economy running. Innovation is good. Unemploying a huge sector of our economy overnight because of innovation, I am not so sure.
  - cookiecaper 10y ago
    >Truck driver is the most common profession in most states. You'll find that "software engineer" is becoming the most common profession in many states where truck driver previously was. [0] If truck drivers become software engineers, that's a big quality of life upgrade. You'll also find that prior to the computer revolution, "secretary" was the most common job, because it took a lot of people to coordinate normal business. Computers optimized that away and everything went fine. Capitalism doesn't work if we fret over the losing side in every competitive accomplishment. It's a competitive world out there, and some hustle is required. >Self-driving trucks will make their jobs obsolete overnight. It won't happen overnight. I personally don't think automated driving will be available to the masses half as quickly as most HNers seem to, but that's beside the point. Adoption will be cautious and gradual. No trucking company wants to risk their cargo or their reputation on tech that hasn't been proven ridiculously reliable. Small portions of fleets will be converted at first, and probably tested for at least a year before they're expanded out. Different companies will adopt at different times. Specialized trucks will have different requirements and may not be immediately available. There are regulatory issues that haven't even been broached as the technology is not fully realized yet -- I believe it will probably take a decade or more after the tech hits mass market before autonomous driving is a smooth legal process in all 50 states. Full adoption won't be able to occur until autonomous driving is universally legal. The point is that the whole industry is not just going to wake up one morning and find themselves replaced. >What will happen to retail? What will happen to wholesale shortly after? Nothing, because trucking companies won't disrupt service to their clients in the process of converting to an autonomous fleet. It'd ruin their business if they allowed technical upgrades to disrupt their schedules. >That truck drivers keep their jobs, or that they are gradually able to transition into new ones, is not just necessary not to feel bad about them, but to keep the whole economy running. They are able to gradually transition as the move to autonomous will be gradual. Nonetheless, companies do go belly up with little warning sometimes. It doesn't seem to stop the economy. Let me float this idea. A lot of truckers are owner-operators, which means they own their own cab and hook up someone else's cargo. Clients pay per job. Perhaps the fleet will become autonomous as owner-operators upgrade their cabs, at which point they'll make a lot more money because they can just dispatch their cab to get hooked up to some cargo and then be free to engage in other productive activities. Just one possibility that would be impeded by a government program to subsidize non-automated trucking. There is no need to be alarmist here. The transition will be gradual enough, and people will innovate as necessary to survive, as they have for centuries. [0] http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-the-most-common-job-in-every-state http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-t...
- dagss 10y ago
  You write like your political view is a force of nature. Surely what the government's job is is what the people decide it is through democratic processes?
  - wooter 10y ago
    so mob rule? no. we are a constitutional republic
    - eropple 10y ago
      That's not particularly relevant. Constitutions change to reflect the will of the people; that's why the Constitution of the United States has an amendment process (and many, many countries update and change their constitutions much more often than the United States does!). Further, while arguments exist that try to push the notion that social welfare is somehow unconstitutional, none that I am aware of have ever stood up in court.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]

by edko 10y ago

cookiecaper 10y ago

We can't keep going with this type of attitude; it's blatantly anti-change. The government's job is not to ensure that everyone has comfortable finances. The government's job is to provide a framework that makes it possible and a structure that removes nefarious actors. As long as that's occurring, the economy is self-governing, and we shouldn't be propping up legacy economic sectors just because we feel bad for the people who are living paycheck-to-paycheck in them. The competitive virtue of capitalism is neutered by measures like this one and the affected sectors grow rancid, just as a gangrenous organ would. We have to allow the economy to work. If we believe in our people, we believe that drivers will be able to find something new that fits into the contemporary economic conditions instead of being dependent on state subsidies and political benevolence for survival. That new thing may be a massively beneficial development, that we'll never get to see if we insist on paying them a stipend for continued participation in an obsolete function.

edko 10y ago
Truck driver is the most common profession in most states. Self-driving trucks will make their jobs obsolete overnight. Imagine the immediate effect of all those people being without a job. What will happen to retail when those truckers buy less or stop buying? What will happen to wholesale shortly after? What will happen to all other industries? That truck drivers keep their jobs, or that they are gradually able to transition into new ones, is not just necessary not to feel bad about them, but to keep the whole economy running. Innovation is good. Unemploying a huge sector of our economy overnight because of innovation, I am not so sure.
- cookiecaper 10y ago
  >Truck driver is the most common profession in most states. You'll find that "software engineer" is becoming the most common profession in many states where truck driver previously was. [0] If truck drivers become software engineers, that's a big quality of life upgrade. You'll also find that prior to the computer revolution, "secretary" was the most common job, because it took a lot of people to coordinate normal business. Computers optimized that away and everything went fine. Capitalism doesn't work if we fret over the losing side in every competitive accomplishment. It's a competitive world out there, and some hustle is required. >Self-driving trucks will make their jobs obsolete overnight. It won't happen overnight. I personally don't think automated driving will be available to the masses half as quickly as most HNers seem to, but that's beside the point. Adoption will be cautious and gradual. No trucking company wants to risk their cargo or their reputation on tech that hasn't been proven ridiculously reliable. Small portions of fleets will be converted at first, and probably tested for at least a year before they're expanded out. Different companies will adopt at different times. Specialized trucks will have different requirements and may not be immediately available. There are regulatory issues that haven't even been broached as the technology is not fully realized yet -- I believe it will probably take a decade or more after the tech hits mass market before autonomous driving is a smooth legal process in all 50 states. Full adoption won't be able to occur until autonomous driving is universally legal. The point is that the whole industry is not just going to wake up one morning and find themselves replaced. >What will happen to retail? What will happen to wholesale shortly after? Nothing, because trucking companies won't disrupt service to their clients in the process of converting to an autonomous fleet. It'd ruin their business if they allowed technical upgrades to disrupt their schedules. >That truck drivers keep their jobs, or that they are gradually able to transition into new ones, is not just necessary not to feel bad about them, but to keep the whole economy running. They are able to gradually transition as the move to autonomous will be gradual. Nonetheless, companies do go belly up with little warning sometimes. It doesn't seem to stop the economy. Let me float this idea. A lot of truckers are owner-operators, which means they own their own cab and hook up someone else's cargo. Clients pay per job. Perhaps the fleet will become autonomous as owner-operators upgrade their cabs, at which point they'll make a lot more money because they can just dispatch their cab to get hooked up to some cargo and then be free to engage in other productive activities. Just one possibility that would be impeded by a government program to subsidize non-automated trucking. There is no need to be alarmist here. The transition will be gradual enough, and people will innovate as necessary to survive, as they have for centuries. [0] http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-the-most-common-job-in-every-state http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-t...
dagss 10y ago
You write like your political view is a force of nature. Surely what the government's job is is what the people decide it is through democratic processes?
- wooter 10y ago
  so mob rule? no. we are a constitutional republic
  - eropple 10y ago
    That's not particularly relevant. Constitutions change to reflect the will of the people; that's why the Constitution of the United States has an amendment process (and many, many countries update and change their constitutions much more often than the United States does!). Further, while arguments exist that try to push the notion that social welfare is somehow unconstitutional, none that I am aware of have ever stood up in court.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]