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Although the field of futurology often shows up in broader media as basically sci-fi worldbuilding presented as prediction, actual scenario and technological fo
by j_smart 10y ago
Although the field of futurology often shows up in broader media as basically sci-fi worldbuilding presented as prediction, actual scenario and technological forecasting is a pretty well developed field with a long(ish) history of serious consideration and attempts.
For instance, Theodore von Karman headed up a group that predicted drones, ICMBs, supersonic aircraft, and a good bit more. In 1945. When the most advanced planes in field were piston powered and prop driven.
Since then, developments like the Delphi technique and prediction markets have helped to make forecasts even more refined. A more on the point question might be whether forecasts are simply become self-fulfilling prophecies since they're relied on so heavily by strategic planners in government and industry.
- T-A 10y agoThen again, in 1945 the following were already known: Drone: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-1_flying_bomb https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/V-1_flying_bomb Jet arcraft: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_jet_aircraft_of_World_War_II https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_jet_aircraft_of_World_... ICBM: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silbervogel https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silbervogel