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>Ruling out first use is the option that gives the lowest risk of nuclear war. I don't believe this is true. You lower the risk that an enemy will misinterpre
by gozur88 10y ago
>Ruling out first use is the option that gives the lowest risk of nuclear war.
I don't believe this is true. You lower the risk that an enemy will misinterpret something as a nuclear attack, but you raise the risk of getting involved in a conventional war that goes nuclear.
- nickff 10y agoThis is a very interesting (Bayesian?) point. Probability of enemy nuclear first strike decreased Probability of enemy conventional first strike increased Probability of enemy nuclear escalation ? I am only addressing policy effects on enemies because the policy may be an intentional lie.