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Not that people's bets mean much, but you can look at how financial markets expect rates to move using the interest rate futures market. These contracts allow
by nstj 10y ago
Not that people's bets mean much, but you can look at how financial markets expect rates to move using the interest rate futures market. These contracts allow you to infer what the market really expects rates to do (as people are putting their money where their mouth is - to the tune of billions of dollars rather than an off the cuff comment on a financial news show). Free data for the 30 day future contract/bet is available from Quandl - which is a great site for checking out free financial data: https://www.quandl.com/collections/futures/cme-30-day-fed-funds-futures https://www.quandl.com/collections/futures/cme-30-day-fed-fu...
- wahern 10y agoOr just look at government bonds. Investors wouldn't be investing in 10-year bonds with negative yields if they thought interest rates were going to go up significantly. I don't work in the financial industry, but just as a bystander it seems clear to me that there are a lot of bond traders, like Bill Gross, who have strong interests in rates going up significantly. Just like small-cap, pump-and-dump scammers, they're trying to move markets with their sophist predictions. I don't think there's much of a dispute that there'll be a regression to some mean. But judging by where people are actually putting their money, the time horizon appears to be much further away than many of the pundits would have us believe. Also, Japan....