5 ms·
> here we have climatologists who cannot even predict correctly whether it rains next week, yet they make predictions about how in 20 years the climate is such
by Freak_NL 10y ago
> here we have climatologists who cannot even predict correctly whether it rains next week, yet they make predictions about how in 20 years the climate is such and such.
Consider observing a forest road in an area with lots of rabbits. You can't accurately predict how many rabbits will dart across the road in the next hour, but you can — based on long-term observations — predict roughly how many rabbits will cross that road in a year, and based on the empirical evidence of bunnies counted conclude that the number furry creatures moving from one side to another is increasing or decreasing.
Symptoms versus trends. The latter can be predicted with some degree of accuracy.
- Kenji 10y agoYou raised a good example with rabbit population. Consider this: http://fractalfoundation.org/OFCA/predatorprey.jpg http://fractalfoundation.org/OFCA/predatorprey.jpg Nobody would ever dare to fit any of the two populations with a straight line, yet they do that with temperature data with barely any explanation for the choice of a linear function.
- beevai142 10y agoRead and understand the IPCC reports, and then we'll talk.
- Kenji 10y agoThank you, I will. For those who are interested: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report http://ipcc.ch/report/ar5/ http://ipcc.ch/report/ar5/