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I'm always unsure how to react to claims of 10 foot rise in sea level in 40 years. Considering how many cities and regions are within 10' of sea level. I und

I'm always unsure how to react to claims of 10 foot rise in sea level in 40 years. Considering how many cities and regions are within 10' of sea level. I understand how awesomely devastating to the world this would be. Should we all be freaking out? Does like every single person need to start taking it seriously? Are the powers at be doing enough to hopefully curb it enough? Is there anything we can really do aside from vote for the right people? Or are we utterly screwed and likely millions+ will die within by end of this century for our species negligence?

madaxe_again 10y ago
In my more tinfoil moments, I do wonder how much of the terroristic furore is a smokescreen to distract populations from a harrowing truth, and to allow the implementation of more authoritarian systems of control, which will be needed if climate change displaces billions of people.
adrianN 10y ago
We are pretty much screwed. Anything we do now will be too little, too late. If we really get our shit together, maybe we can limit warming to 2 degrees. To do so we need to completely stop producing GHGs. At current rates we have about 22 years. The rate is rising, not falling. http://www.trillionthtonne.org/ http://www.trillionthtonne.org/
js8 10y ago
> Should we all be freaking out? Does like every single person need to start taking it seriously? Are the powers at be doing enough to hopefully curb it enough? Is there anything we can really do aside from vote for the right people? No. Yes. No. Yes, trust the scientists, make this into a political issue, support carbon tax (Hansen's proposal). > Or are we utterly screwed and likely millions+ will die within by end of this century for our species negligence? I think best is to be pessimistic about the default outcome but optimistic about our ability to prevent it. P.S. Article is from mid-2015, and this year is no more sane so far.
douche 10y ago
I have to wonder if claims of extreme sea rise like that are reality-based or pure fear-mongering. From a simple geometric analysis, it seems unlikely that the most outlandish claims could be correct - it takes an unbelievable fuck-ton of ice melting to raise sea levels even a little. http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/05/worried-about-floods-due-to-rising-sea-level-forget-it-not-happening.php http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/05/worried-about-...
- newtohn 10y ago
  Uh, you do know that sea level rises for several reasons, right? Thermal expansions. Oh and ice melt of glaciers and sea ice isn't linear. Why not read some peer reviewed science?
  - douche 10y ago
    Sure, you don't have to call me an idiot. But claims of sea level rises of 10' are between three and five times higher than what any reputable source I've been able to find would posit in their worst cases for the next hundred years (e.g. [1]). The difference between a two-foot rise in sea levels and ten feet is the difference between something we could realistically do something about, and an apocalyptic vision. [1] http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/communication/climate-faq/how-much-will-the-sea-level-rise/ http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/communication/climate-faq/how-mu...
dalke 10y ago
> "I'm always unsure how to react to claims of 10 foot rise in sea level in 40 years." That is not considered likely. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Fifth Assessment Report, Synthesis Report, at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FIN... on page 11 has a plot titled "Global mean sea level rise (relative to 1986–2005)". The highest end of the worst case given is 1 meter rise by the end of the century. By 2050 the high end is only about 30 cm, or 1 foot. > Global mean sea level rise will continue during the 21st century, very likely at a faster rate than observed from 1971 to 2010. For the period 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005, the rise will likely be in the ranges of 0.26 to 0.55 m for RCP2.6, and of 0.45 to 0.82 m for RCP8.5 (medium confidence)[10] > 10. Based on current understanding (from observations, physical understanding and modelling), only the collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause global mean sea level to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. There is medium confidence that this additional contribution would not exceed several tenths of a meter of sea level rise during the 21st century. How you should react is to read the IPCC report and learn what it is that people think is likely to happen, rather than worry about hyperbolic statements like a 10 meter rise in a few decades.
- madaxe_again 10y ago
  Although you should also bear in mind that the IPCC reports have been considerably "watered down" in response to governmental pressure. Talk to a climatologist, and they'll tell you all sorts of things you don't want to hear. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/may/15/ipcc-un-climate-reports-diluted-protect-fossil-fuel-interests https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/m...
  - Tiquor 10y ago
    Climatologist in radio said in an interview the other day that sea level could rise 3cm to 10m in the next X years. Follow up question was, of course, "What happens at 10m sea rise." There is definitely some tendency all around to be hyperbolic.
  - 10y ago
pjc50 10y ago
> likely millions+ will die within by end of this century That's business as usual. The key is to realise that it won't look like climate change, it'll be superficially other things that look economic or political but are related to either fossil fuel economics or changing agricultural productivity. Several million dead or displaced? Already happening in the Syrian and Yemeni civil wars. Watch out for Egypt and Turkey possibly being next. The US (and other countries) is seeing a rise in fire and flood due to exceptional weather conditions. Fort McMurray in Canada got both. The immediate casualties may not be high but the economic damage is lasting. The sibling comment details that sea level rise won't be that bad globally, but it's important to realise that sea level and its rise is not as uniform as you'd expect. Florida is already seeing the rise coming up through its groundwater.

madaxe_again 10y ago

In my more tinfoil moments, I do wonder how much of the terroristic furore is a smokescreen to distract populations from a harrowing truth, and to allow the implementation of more authoritarian systems of control, which will be needed if climate change displaces billions of people.

adrianN 10y ago

We are pretty much screwed. Anything we do now will be too little, too late. If we really get our shit together, maybe we can limit warming to 2 degrees. To do so we need to completely stop producing GHGs. At current rates we have about 22 years. The rate is rising, not falling. http://www.trillionthtonne.org/ http://www.trillionthtonne.org/

js8 10y ago

> Should we all be freaking out? Does like every single person need to start taking it seriously? Are the powers at be doing enough to hopefully curb it enough? Is there anything we can really do aside from vote for the right people? No. Yes. No. Yes, trust the scientists, make this into a political issue, support carbon tax (Hansen's proposal). > Or are we utterly screwed and likely millions+ will die within by end of this century for our species negligence? I think best is to be pessimistic about the default outcome but optimistic about our ability to prevent it. P.S. Article is from mid-2015, and this year is no more sane so far.

douche 10y ago

I have to wonder if claims of extreme sea rise like that are reality-based or pure fear-mongering. From a simple geometric analysis, it seems unlikely that the most outlandish claims could be correct - it takes an unbelievable fuck-ton of ice melting to raise sea levels even a little. http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/05/worried-about-floods-due-to-rising-sea-level-forget-it-not-happening.php http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2014/05/worried-about-...

newtohn 10y ago
Uh, you do know that sea level rises for several reasons, right? Thermal expansions. Oh and ice melt of glaciers and sea ice isn't linear. Why not read some peer reviewed science?
- douche 10y ago
  Sure, you don't have to call me an idiot. But claims of sea level rises of 10' are between three and five times higher than what any reputable source I've been able to find would posit in their worst cases for the next hundred years (e.g. [1]). The difference between a two-foot rise in sea levels and ten feet is the difference between something we could realistically do something about, and an apocalyptic vision. [1] http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/communication/climate-faq/how-much-will-the-sea-level-rise/ http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/communication/climate-faq/how-mu...

dalke 10y ago

> "I'm always unsure how to react to claims of 10 foot rise in sea level in 40 years." That is not considered likely. The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Fifth Assessment Report, Synthesis Report, at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FIN... on page 11 has a plot titled "Global mean sea level rise (relative to 1986–2005)". The highest end of the worst case given is 1 meter rise by the end of the century. By 2050 the high end is only about 30 cm, or 1 foot. > Global mean sea level rise will continue during the 21st century, very likely at a faster rate than observed from 1971 to 2010. For the period 2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005, the rise will likely be in the ranges of 0.26 to 0.55 m for RCP2.6, and of 0.45 to 0.82 m for RCP8.5 (medium confidence)[10] > 10. Based on current understanding (from observations, physical understanding and modelling), only the collapse of marine-based sectors of the Antarctic ice sheet, if initiated, could cause global mean sea level to rise substantially above the likely range during the 21st century. There is medium confidence that this additional contribution would not exceed several tenths of a meter of sea level rise during the 21st century. How you should react is to read the IPCC report and learn what it is that people think is likely to happen, rather than worry about hyperbolic statements like a 10 meter rise in a few decades.

madaxe_again 10y ago
Although you should also bear in mind that the IPCC reports have been considerably "watered down" in response to governmental pressure. Talk to a climatologist, and they'll tell you all sorts of things you don't want to hear. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/may/15/ipcc-un-climate-reports-diluted-protect-fossil-fuel-interests https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/m...
- Tiquor 10y ago
  Climatologist in radio said in an interview the other day that sea level could rise 3cm to 10m in the next X years. Follow up question was, of course, "What happens at 10m sea rise." There is definitely some tendency all around to be hyperbolic.
- 10y ago

pjc50 10y ago

> likely millions+ will die within by end of this century That's business as usual. The key is to realise that it won't look like climate change, it'll be superficially other things that look economic or political but are related to either fossil fuel economics or changing agricultural productivity. Several million dead or displaced? Already happening in the Syrian and Yemeni civil wars. Watch out for Egypt and Turkey possibly being next. The US (and other countries) is seeing a rise in fire and flood due to exceptional weather conditions. Fort McMurray in Canada got both. The immediate casualties may not be high but the economic damage is lasting. The sibling comment details that sea level rise won't be that bad globally, but it's important to realise that sea level and its rise is not as uniform as you'd expect. Florida is already seeing the rise coming up through its groundwater.