4 ms·

I think you're touching on something important - the refresh cycle for PCs/Laptops is going to very soon be transitioning from the traditional 2-year cycle to 3

I think you're touching on something important - the refresh cycle for PCs/Laptops is going to very soon be transitioning from the traditional 2-year cycle to 3-years, and, in the case of desktops, we're going to be seeing people run their systems for 4, even 5 years before considering upgrading. Combine this trend (which I think we can all agree on), with the fact that for a lot of people, their dominant computer is their smart phone/phablet, which is being refreshed every two-years, and you can see that fairly soon (if not already) Intel Fabs that focus on making chips for the desktop/laptop market will be underutilized - and there is a lot of capital tied up in those.

syshum 10y ago
>the refresh cycle for PCs/Laptops is going to very soon be transitioning from the traditional 2-year cycle to 3-years, and, in the case of desktops, we're going to be seeing people run their systems for 4, even 5 years before considering upgrading. We have been on a 3/5 cycle for the last 10 or so years. (3 year laptop/5year desktop) We are likely moving to a 5/8 cycle with our current hardware. > their dominant computer is their smart phone/phablet, which is being refreshed every two-years, I am seeing less and less people willing to replace their phones on the 18-24 month cycle. The primary reason this occurred originally was cell phone carriers used the "upgrade" to lock people in to an additional 24mo contract. As we see less and less contracts and more people paying for their phones out of pocket or in installments, the replacement window is increasing, I expect by the end of 2017 to see the replacement be 36-48 mos for Cell Phones. This is especially true for any phone priced over ~$350. Most of this comes down to how long the OEM will continue to issue OS Updates for the hardware, if your phone is getting updates to the OS 36mos after you bought it there is likely very little reason to spend another $400 on a phone. We will likely see some Manufacturers/Carries taking the opportunity to screw over their customers by refusing updates after 24 months in order to extort them into a replacement. Hopefully the market responds to these companies by pushing them to bankruptcy but...
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- bluGill 10y ago
  > Most of this comes down to how long the OEM will continue to issue OS Updates for the hardware, if your phone is getting updates to the OS 36mos after you bought it there is likely very little reason to spend another $400 on a phone I think you have missed the most important issue: phones and tables are not getting to the point where they are useful without an upgrade. I had the first android phone when it came out, and it was just barely usable: I was happy to upgrade once it was paid off. The upgrade was usable, but it needed a little more power. My next phone got upgraded only when it broke, the upgrade is better but it isn't significant for my workflow.
- ghshephard 10y ago
  A lot also has to do with the Hardware Support as well. I know our company just buys Applecare for the Laptop, and if something goes wrong with it, employee just brings it in to the Apple Store and gets it fixed, so 3 years is pretty much the outside limit. If your company has internal support mechanisms, they might be able to stretch it out further. Personally, I consider myself showing self restraint if I don't upgrade my phone on an annual basis, and don't think I've ever gone more than 2 years - but I realize I probably fall into a niche.
  - syshum 10y ago
    >>If your company has internal support mechanisms, they might be able to stretch it out further. We do, I have probably ~2,000 systems under management, not a single one of the Apple. We always buy the 3 year extended warranty from the manufactures, and most of the Major Vendors will also sell a 3 year extended hardware support after the extended warrany, giving us 6 years of full hardware support on the systems, after 6 years most of them have been full deprecated by accounting anyway so for year 7 and 8 (desktops only, laptops would have been replaced at that point) we likely just keep a few spares and replace as they fail.
    - ghshephard 10y ago
      Did you mean to say that none of the 2000 systems you have under management is an Apple System? That would be very unusual for a technology company, where being able to use Apple gear to get work done is a pre-requisite for a lot of engineers considering applying for a job. The nice thing about Applecare, is pretty much any major city in the world there is an Apple authorized reseller that I can bring the gear in to be replaced. Downside, is there isn't the same type of "Onsite, 4 hour repair service" that companies like Dell offer. I've got a laptop (2013 Macbook Air) that's up for renewal, but, honestly, it's fast enough that I don't really feel the desire to get a new one until Apple comes out with their new MacBook Pros. For the first time in a long time, I don't feel any urgency to upgrade...
      - syshum 10y ago

syshum 10y ago

>the refresh cycle for PCs/Laptops is going to very soon be transitioning from the traditional 2-year cycle to 3-years, and, in the case of desktops, we're going to be seeing people run their systems for 4, even 5 years before considering upgrading. We have been on a 3/5 cycle for the last 10 or so years. (3 year laptop/5year desktop) We are likely moving to a 5/8 cycle with our current hardware. > their dominant computer is their smart phone/phablet, which is being refreshed every two-years, I am seeing less and less people willing to replace their phones on the 18-24 month cycle. The primary reason this occurred originally was cell phone carriers used the "upgrade" to lock people in to an additional 24mo contract. As we see less and less contracts and more people paying for their phones out of pocket or in installments, the replacement window is increasing, I expect by the end of 2017 to see the replacement be 36-48 mos for Cell Phones. This is especially true for any phone priced over ~$350. Most of this comes down to how long the OEM will continue to issue OS Updates for the hardware, if your phone is getting updates to the OS 36mos after you bought it there is likely very little reason to spend another $400 on a phone. We will likely see some Manufacturers/Carries taking the opportunity to screw over their customers by refusing updates after 24 months in order to extort them into a replacement. Hopefully the market responds to these companies by pushing them to bankruptcy but...

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
bluGill 10y ago
> Most of this comes down to how long the OEM will continue to issue OS Updates for the hardware, if your phone is getting updates to the OS 36mos after you bought it there is likely very little reason to spend another $400 on a phone I think you have missed the most important issue: phones and tables are not getting to the point where they are useful without an upgrade. I had the first android phone when it came out, and it was just barely usable: I was happy to upgrade once it was paid off. The upgrade was usable, but it needed a little more power. My next phone got upgraded only when it broke, the upgrade is better but it isn't significant for my workflow.
ghshephard 10y ago
A lot also has to do with the Hardware Support as well. I know our company just buys Applecare for the Laptop, and if something goes wrong with it, employee just brings it in to the Apple Store and gets it fixed, so 3 years is pretty much the outside limit. If your company has internal support mechanisms, they might be able to stretch it out further. Personally, I consider myself showing self restraint if I don't upgrade my phone on an annual basis, and don't think I've ever gone more than 2 years - but I realize I probably fall into a niche.
- syshum 10y ago
  >>If your company has internal support mechanisms, they might be able to stretch it out further. We do, I have probably ~2,000 systems under management, not a single one of the Apple. We always buy the 3 year extended warranty from the manufactures, and most of the Major Vendors will also sell a 3 year extended hardware support after the extended warrany, giving us 6 years of full hardware support on the systems, after 6 years most of them have been full deprecated by accounting anyway so for year 7 and 8 (desktops only, laptops would have been replaced at that point) we likely just keep a few spares and replace as they fail.
  - ghshephard 10y ago
    Did you mean to say that none of the 2000 systems you have under management is an Apple System? That would be very unusual for a technology company, where being able to use Apple gear to get work done is a pre-requisite for a lot of engineers considering applying for a job. The nice thing about Applecare, is pretty much any major city in the world there is an Apple authorized reseller that I can bring the gear in to be replaced. Downside, is there isn't the same type of "Onsite, 4 hour repair service" that companies like Dell offer. I've got a laptop (2013 Macbook Air) that's up for renewal, but, honestly, it's fast enough that I don't really feel the desire to get a new one until Apple comes out with their new MacBook Pros. For the first time in a long time, I don't feel any urgency to upgrade...
    - syshum 10y ago