Was is it a mistake? What's the probability of massive success there? In 1000 universes with FB, how many times would FB take off like that? Groupon's looking

Was is it a mistake? What's the probability of massive success there? In 1000 universes with FB, how many times would FB take off like that? Groupon's looking silly for not selling at 6BN, at least as a company. (I think they personally made out ok?)