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> It is not controversial to say that our moods affect the explanations we make up for things that happen in our lives. If we are in a good mood and someone smi

> It is not controversial to say that our moods affect the explanations we make up for things that happen in our lives. If we are in a good mood and someone smiles at us, we think they like us. If we are in a bad mood, we wonder if they have read some awkward code we just checked in, and if they are laughing at us. It's not controversial to say that our moods can affect our interpretations and decisions, but it is (to me anyway) to make a blanket statement that moods always do effect interpretations and decisions. I find it extremely controversial to suggest that the answer to this "mood bias" is to willfully delude yourself by forcing yourself to think "optimistically". The author suggests that mood is a binary decision between optimism and pessimism. In life, very few decisions are binary, despite human propensity to view things as black and white. I would suggest that there is a middle ground between optimism and pessimism (call it "realism"). As a poker player for several decades, I can tell you that you are forced to discard optimism and pessimism (at least at the poker table) and adopt "realism" if you want to be successful. You can't let your moods affect your judgement. In regards to the author's statement, when someone smiles at you, you have to dispassionately calculate what that smile means given the context and other "knowns" you have to evaluate the situation. If you allow your mood to effect how you judge that smile will ensure your long-term failure as a poker player. I'd argue that, with some effort, the same mindset can be extended to every day life, neither optimistic or pessimistic. Calculating outcomes and probabilities based on what you know, see, and hear without "mood bias" because you expect good or bad things to happen. I would agree that if you are going to make deluded, biased assessments based on your mood that you are better off doing so with a smile then a frown, but you are best off if you reject self-delusion all together.

Firadeoclus 10y ago
That's an interesting observation. In poker, if you have a clear and consistent bias other players will move to exploit that bias. However, it's worth pointing out that poker is a zero sum game if you choose winning as the measure of success. But many situations are not zero sum. There's the possibility that optimism could increase the pot for everyone. Furthermore, enjoying the process can be a reward in itself. If you enjoy playing poker losing does not necessarily equate to failure.

Firadeoclus 10y ago

That's an interesting observation. In poker, if you have a clear and consistent bias other players will move to exploit that bias. However, it's worth pointing out that poker is a zero sum game if you choose winning as the measure of success. But many situations are not zero sum. There's the possibility that optimism could increase the pot for everyone. Furthermore, enjoying the process can be a reward in itself. If you enjoy playing poker losing does not necessarily equate to failure.