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> But this industry sucks at software updates. Except Tesla. I think we're going to see a race from two ends of the spectrum: Can Tesla ramp up production fas

> But this industry sucks at software updates. Except Tesla. I think we're going to see a race from two ends of the spectrum: Can Tesla ramp up production faster than traditional manufacturers learn how to build software?

Teever 10y ago
I think you've hit the nail on the head here. It is an interesting race to the middle and either way consumers stand to win from it. This is exactly the kind of situation that I think typifies the positive aspects of capitalism. You have two companies that each have one half the piece of a puzzle and are furiously trying to compete against each other to produce the other piece. We will see a lot of different techniques tried and that could potentially lead to a lot of tangential benefits to the economy along the way.
orky56 10y ago
It's more complicated than that. Tesla needs to increase their production much faster since the other manufacturers combined creates the long tail that Tesla will be competing with. Also, traditional manufacturers may rely on some industry software gold standard that lets them outsource the software development if they believe the core competency is unrealistic to develop in-house without 1) software mindset 2) time 3) money 4) organizational structure.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
etendue 10y ago
I'd bet on the legacy manufacturers. Musk has a reputation for firing senior managers that give him answers he doesn't like, or that fail to meet his unreasonable demands. That level of management meddling doesn't bode well for Tesla's manufacturing future. Nor does "putting parts in the car knowing [they] are bad", if the accusation (by a departed employee) is true. (http://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-sets-ambitious-goals-at-teslaand-often-falls-short-1471275436 http://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-sets-ambitious-goals-a...) I have previously questioned, and still do, Tesla's PLM. Legacy manufacturers do know how to do software, despite the general lousy state of in-car entertainment systems arguing otherwise. They also know how to manufacture a quality product at scale. It's an easier task for them to bolster their software than for Tesla to learn what they already know about manufacturing and ramp up manufacturing.
- snewk 10y ago
  youre making the assumption that the software problems (not yet solved) have easier solutions than the manufacturing problems (solved multiple times).
- PhantomGremlin 10y ago
  Legacy manufacturers do know how to do software Err ... no they don't: Toyotas Unintended Acceleration and the Big Bowl of “Spaghetti” Code https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9643204
cmurf 10y ago
OK well I'm 100% confident Ford and BMW will be in existence in 20 years. I'm maybe 80% confident Tesla will be, in any case it's definitely not 100%. So even setting aside the software updates for 10-20 years question, as if that'll even be a thing with these cars, I have less than complete certainty Tesla will be around in its present form making cars at all.

Teever 10y ago

I think you've hit the nail on the head here. It is an interesting race to the middle and either way consumers stand to win from it. This is exactly the kind of situation that I think typifies the positive aspects of capitalism. You have two companies that each have one half the piece of a puzzle and are furiously trying to compete against each other to produce the other piece. We will see a lot of different techniques tried and that could potentially lead to a lot of tangential benefits to the economy along the way.

orky56 10y ago

It's more complicated than that. Tesla needs to increase their production much faster since the other manufacturers combined creates the long tail that Tesla will be competing with. Also, traditional manufacturers may rely on some industry software gold standard that lets them outsource the software development if they believe the core competency is unrealistic to develop in-house without 1) software mindset 2) time 3) money 4) organizational structure.

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]

etendue 10y ago

I'd bet on the legacy manufacturers. Musk has a reputation for firing senior managers that give him answers he doesn't like, or that fail to meet his unreasonable demands. That level of management meddling doesn't bode well for Tesla's manufacturing future. Nor does "putting parts in the car knowing [they] are bad", if the accusation (by a departed employee) is true. (http://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-sets-ambitious-goals-at-teslaand-often-falls-short-1471275436 http://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-sets-ambitious-goals-a...) I have previously questioned, and still do, Tesla's PLM. Legacy manufacturers do know how to do software, despite the general lousy state of in-car entertainment systems arguing otherwise. They also know how to manufacture a quality product at scale. It's an easier task for them to bolster their software than for Tesla to learn what they already know about manufacturing and ramp up manufacturing.

snewk 10y ago
youre making the assumption that the software problems (not yet solved) have easier solutions than the manufacturing problems (solved multiple times).
PhantomGremlin 10y ago
Legacy manufacturers do know how to do software Err ... no they don't: Toyotas Unintended Acceleration and the Big Bowl of “Spaghetti” Code https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9643204

cmurf 10y ago

OK well I'm 100% confident Ford and BMW will be in existence in 20 years. I'm maybe 80% confident Tesla will be, in any case it's definitely not 100%. So even setting aside the software updates for 10-20 years question, as if that'll even be a thing with these cars, I have less than complete certainty Tesla will be around in its present form making cars at all.