4 ms·

Proxima Centauri has a Earth-like planet

75 points by lrondanini 10y ago

wbl 10y ago
Sign me up for the expedition.
carapace 10y ago
Dibs! (I'm sorry, I couldn't help it.)
jlebar 10y ago
I don't think it's a spoiler to say that this is a major plot point in "The Three Body Problem" by Liu Cixin.
Jedd 10y ago
I appreciate it's 100% speculative, as we are stuck with a sample set of only one, but I'm increasingly of the belief that we're rare (as opposed to first or fucked [1]). Heavily swayed by a recent reading of Nick Lane's excellent book on Mitochondria[2]. The fact that even our nearest neighbour probably has an earth-like planet is, from this angle, a bit depressing. [1] http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power,_Sex,_Suicide https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power,_Sex,_Suicide
- thangalin 10y ago
  The Percolation Theory reasons that Earth might linger in an uninteresting part of the Milky Way: its galactic backwaters. See: * [1998] http://www.geoffreylandis.com/percolation.htp http://www.geoffreylandis.com/percolation.htp * [2014] https://arxiv.org/abs/1404.0204 https://arxiv.org/abs/1404.0204
  - sigil 10y ago
    That Landis paper is great, thanks.
- sfifs 10y ago
  You may find the "dark forest hypothesis" that's put forward in the Three Body Problem/Dark Forest series bu Liu Cixin an interesting possible solution for the Fermi Paradise. Interestingly, a planet on Proxima Centauri is a major plot point in the novels.
  - Jedd 10y ago
    Yup, I've read the first two of this series, and it's an interesting proposition, but also pretty depressing. Nation states and / or races are a hopeful and cheery counter example... or in for a hard time.
- erdevs 10y ago
  I don't know. Fermi paradox has never bothered me too badly. Between possible great filters (behind and/or ahead of us), the time and distance involved in species discovery and travel, and the fact we're still apparently pretty early in the universe's lifespan ... it seems reasonable to me that we may be some combination of rare and early. So, Group I seems reasonable. One potential "great filter" always stood out as likely to me, even if all the other leaps before we came along had been made: That filter is developing the combination of (i) self-aware intelligence to a degree that you are capable of deep layers of abstraction, (ii) the physical ability to adeptly physically build complex creations, (iii) an inclination toward social living that encourages cooperation. Other relatively high intelligences have evolved here on earth: octopuses, dolphins, elephants, etc. But it's hard to imagine any of them being physically capable of dramatically modifying their environment and building complex, useful creations. And we mammalian humans, dolphins and elephants are all social and cooperative to some degree, but octopuses don't seem to be. The combination of these three occurrences is extremely powerful, but may also be extremely rare. And it's difficult to imagine a space-faring civilization that wouldn't need all 3. And Group 2 seems reasonable too. In particular, it's interesting to consider that while we currently hold an expansionist mindset because expansion has driven the course of our civilization, this may be a temporary thing. It makes sense when competing locally with enemies (other tribes, cities, nations, empires, etc) that are very similar to yourself. And we believe that survival and expansion go hand in hand. But it may well be the case that intelligent species generally discover that survival is maximized when not expanding aggressively, beyond some point, and when conserving resources. Hiding themselves so as to minimize the risk of contact with other alien species may go hand in hand with that as well. So, between seemingly plausible filters in both Group 1 and Group 2 explanations, I think it's reasonable to entertain the possibility that it'll be a long time before we meet another alien civilization, if we ever do.
  - breuleux 10y ago
    I think it makes sense for an intelligent civilization not to expand, if you consider the problem of synchronizing over vast interstellar distances. If it takes years to exchange messages and resources back and forth between two colonies, it will be slow and costly to keep them on the same page. That means they will likely evolve independently and may become competitors. In other words, colonies lacking resources inside the expansion wave would start attacking their own neighbours, and colonies at the periphery may decide to expand inward, because even though other colonies' resources are harder to acquire, they are already processed/terraformed and therefore more useful. So you don't expand, not necessarily to hide, but to avoid creating enemies in close proximity to yourself, because you can't control your own offspring except at a tremendous cost. Of course, even so, it seems strange that no civilization would ever make this mistake. Perhaps those that do are far away, or the propensity of colonies to eventually expand inward slows down the expansion.
Eliezer 10y ago
WHAT. That is one implausible SF premise that just allegedly came true there.
- aab0 10y ago
  They've refused to deny it, so they've confirmed it. When I saw the headline, I literally went 'Oh come on!' out loud. Apparently there's a bloody Earth-like planet everywhere if even our neighboring star has one.
- fhrjchcjdnc 10y ago
  So where can I find the address to direct the letter-writing campaign to name it "Vekta?"
deftnerd 10y ago
It might have an earth-like planet in terms of orbit and composition, but I highly doubt that it would have life on it. Proxima Centauri is a flare-type star, meaning that it it unpredictably brightens across its entire spectrum from infrared to x-ray. A planet would have to have a really thick atmosphere to protect against that, and a thick atmosphere can easily run away like Venus. Without a thick atmosphere, any burgeoning life would have to deal with random bursts of energy that could cause damage to that lifes equivalent of genetic coding.
- whatshisface 10y ago
  There's no thick atmosphere like ten feet of water. The frequency absorption of water has a small window around visible light and a sold wall around it. [1] Maybe the danger of building telescopes on the surface (and the rapid attenuation of their home medium) is why they haven't built any radios to chat with us. ;) [1]http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/chemical/watabs.html http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/chemical/watabs.h...
  - dogma1138 10y ago
    Techonlogical society can't develop under water.
    - whatshisface 10y ago
      You can have culture, tools and electrochemistry underwater.
      - dogma1138 10y ago
        You can't have fire, basic tools maybe, more than that not really. Also doing chemistry underwater is pretty neat impossible. Sure we can do it today, but incremental development is very unlikely. There is a good chance that any technological species we need will be quite close to us because there are certain criteria that are likely to be met which are pretty universal.
dogma1138 10y ago
There is almost no time dilation at 50% C this is pretty awesome less than a 10 year trip if we ever manage to build even probes that can go that fast it's pretty much a done deal.
roywiggins 10y ago
Good enough motivation as any to go through with the Starshot idea. http://www.space.com/32546-interstellar-spaceflight-stephen-hawking-project-starshot.html http://www.space.com/32546-interstellar-spaceflight-stephen-...
Razengan 10y ago
There's something that always seems to be overlooked by all these discussions about the suitability of exoplanets for extraterrestrial intelligence: Artificial Lifeforms. Say, if we humans were to build robots, with [true] AI, and they then go on to colonize the other planets in our solar system, would a biological species somewhere ever consider them as a candidate for life? I mean, machines made of metal and electronics won't need any of that fancy oxygen and water, to be able to survive on Mars or Venus or any of the barren moons, or even float around in the upper layers of Saturn. They would be happily carrying out all the functions we ascribe to "life" and we'd never even think that there would be anything there. Just look at our current space tech and industry. Robots would definitely be cheaper for the foreseeable future because you don't need any life-support systems, during transit or at site, just sun sun sun batteries sun. TL;DR: The galaxy just might be full of robotic instead of biological life.
mbfg 10y ago
Practically the entire universe could be teaming with intelligent life, and we would never know it, given the speed of causality, even without the expansion of the universe.

75 points by lrondanini 10y ago

wbl 10y ago

Sign me up for the expedition.

carapace 10y ago

Dibs! (I'm sorry, I couldn't help it.)

jlebar 10y ago

I don't think it's a spoiler to say that this is a major plot point in "The Three Body Problem" by Liu Cixin.

Jedd 10y ago

I appreciate it's 100% speculative, as we are stuck with a sample set of only one, but I'm increasingly of the belief that we're rare (as opposed to first or fucked [1]). Heavily swayed by a recent reading of Nick Lane's excellent book on Mitochondria[2]. The fact that even our nearest neighbour probably has an earth-like planet is, from this angle, a bit depressing. [1] http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html http://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power,_Sex,_Suicide https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power,_Sex,_Suicide

thangalin 10y ago
The Percolation Theory reasons that Earth might linger in an uninteresting part of the Milky Way: its galactic backwaters. See: * [1998] http://www.geoffreylandis.com/percolation.htp http://www.geoffreylandis.com/percolation.htp * [2014] https://arxiv.org/abs/1404.0204 https://arxiv.org/abs/1404.0204
- sigil 10y ago
  That Landis paper is great, thanks.
sfifs 10y ago
You may find the "dark forest hypothesis" that's put forward in the Three Body Problem/Dark Forest series bu Liu Cixin an interesting possible solution for the Fermi Paradise. Interestingly, a planet on Proxima Centauri is a major plot point in the novels.
- Jedd 10y ago
  Yup, I've read the first two of this series, and it's an interesting proposition, but also pretty depressing. Nation states and / or races are a hopeful and cheery counter example... or in for a hard time.
erdevs 10y ago
I don't know. Fermi paradox has never bothered me too badly. Between possible great filters (behind and/or ahead of us), the time and distance involved in species discovery and travel, and the fact we're still apparently pretty early in the universe's lifespan ... it seems reasonable to me that we may be some combination of rare and early. So, Group I seems reasonable. One potential "great filter" always stood out as likely to me, even if all the other leaps before we came along had been made: That filter is developing the combination of (i) self-aware intelligence to a degree that you are capable of deep layers of abstraction, (ii) the physical ability to adeptly physically build complex creations, (iii) an inclination toward social living that encourages cooperation. Other relatively high intelligences have evolved here on earth: octopuses, dolphins, elephants, etc. But it's hard to imagine any of them being physically capable of dramatically modifying their environment and building complex, useful creations. And we mammalian humans, dolphins and elephants are all social and cooperative to some degree, but octopuses don't seem to be. The combination of these three occurrences is extremely powerful, but may also be extremely rare. And it's difficult to imagine a space-faring civilization that wouldn't need all 3. And Group 2 seems reasonable too. In particular, it's interesting to consider that while we currently hold an expansionist mindset because expansion has driven the course of our civilization, this may be a temporary thing. It makes sense when competing locally with enemies (other tribes, cities, nations, empires, etc) that are very similar to yourself. And we believe that survival and expansion go hand in hand. But it may well be the case that intelligent species generally discover that survival is maximized when not expanding aggressively, beyond some point, and when conserving resources. Hiding themselves so as to minimize the risk of contact with other alien species may go hand in hand with that as well. So, between seemingly plausible filters in both Group 1 and Group 2 explanations, I think it's reasonable to entertain the possibility that it'll be a long time before we meet another alien civilization, if we ever do.
- breuleux 10y ago
  I think it makes sense for an intelligent civilization not to expand, if you consider the problem of synchronizing over vast interstellar distances. If it takes years to exchange messages and resources back and forth between two colonies, it will be slow and costly to keep them on the same page. That means they will likely evolve independently and may become competitors. In other words, colonies lacking resources inside the expansion wave would start attacking their own neighbours, and colonies at the periphery may decide to expand inward, because even though other colonies' resources are harder to acquire, they are already processed/terraformed and therefore more useful. So you don't expand, not necessarily to hide, but to avoid creating enemies in close proximity to yourself, because you can't control your own offspring except at a tremendous cost. Of course, even so, it seems strange that no civilization would ever make this mistake. Perhaps those that do are far away, or the propensity of colonies to eventually expand inward slows down the expansion.

Eliezer 10y ago

WHAT. That is one implausible SF premise that just allegedly came true there.

aab0 10y ago
They've refused to deny it, so they've confirmed it. When I saw the headline, I literally went 'Oh come on!' out loud. Apparently there's a bloody Earth-like planet everywhere if even our neighboring star has one.
fhrjchcjdnc 10y ago
So where can I find the address to direct the letter-writing campaign to name it "Vekta?"

deftnerd 10y ago

It might have an earth-like planet in terms of orbit and composition, but I highly doubt that it would have life on it. Proxima Centauri is a flare-type star, meaning that it it unpredictably brightens across its entire spectrum from infrared to x-ray. A planet would have to have a really thick atmosphere to protect against that, and a thick atmosphere can easily run away like Venus. Without a thick atmosphere, any burgeoning life would have to deal with random bursts of energy that could cause damage to that lifes equivalent of genetic coding.

whatshisface 10y ago
There's no thick atmosphere like ten feet of water. The frequency absorption of water has a small window around visible light and a sold wall around it. [1] Maybe the danger of building telescopes on the surface (and the rapid attenuation of their home medium) is why they haven't built any radios to chat with us. ;) [1]http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/chemical/watabs.html http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/chemical/watabs.h...
- dogma1138 10y ago
  Techonlogical society can't develop under water.
  - whatshisface 10y ago
    You can have culture, tools and electrochemistry underwater.
    - dogma1138 10y ago
      You can't have fire, basic tools maybe, more than that not really. Also doing chemistry underwater is pretty neat impossible. Sure we can do it today, but incremental development is very unlikely. There is a good chance that any technological species we need will be quite close to us because there are certain criteria that are likely to be met which are pretty universal.

dogma1138 10y ago

There is almost no time dilation at 50% C this is pretty awesome less than a 10 year trip if we ever manage to build even probes that can go that fast it's pretty much a done deal.

roywiggins 10y ago

Good enough motivation as any to go through with the Starshot idea. http://www.space.com/32546-interstellar-spaceflight-stephen-hawking-project-starshot.html http://www.space.com/32546-interstellar-spaceflight-stephen-...

Razengan 10y ago

There's something that always seems to be overlooked by all these discussions about the suitability of exoplanets for extraterrestrial intelligence: Artificial Lifeforms. Say, if we humans were to build robots, with [true] AI, and they then go on to colonize the other planets in our solar system, would a biological species somewhere ever consider them as a candidate for life? I mean, machines made of metal and electronics won't need any of that fancy oxygen and water, to be able to survive on Mars or Venus or any of the barren moons, or even float around in the upper layers of Saturn. They would be happily carrying out all the functions we ascribe to "life" and we'd never even think that there would be anything there. Just look at our current space tech and industry. Robots would definitely be cheaper for the foreseeable future because you don't need any life-support systems, during transit or at site, just sun sun sun batteries sun. TL;DR: The galaxy just might be full of robotic instead of biological life.

mbfg 10y ago

Practically the entire universe could be teaming with intelligent life, and we would never know it, given the speed of causality, even without the expansion of the universe.