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I am no expert on non-physics sciences, but recently I am starting to worry that the way we do science today depends on ideal experimental and theoretical condi
by yk 10y ago
I am no expert on non-physics sciences, but recently I am starting to worry that the way we do science today depends on ideal experimental and theoretical conditions.[1] In physics we see 2 sigma events vanish all the time, just last week we have seen the disappearance of the di-photon excess at the LHC. That was an excess that two experiments did see independently to a significance better than p < 5%, with well controlled statistics and well understood experimental set up. Similar the Auger anisotropy [2] was on the cover of Science and did just vanish. Again an effect with p < 5%, using blinded data analysis. My understanding is, that this data analysis is quite a bit better than the standard in other fields, and it does not really work reliably in physics, a field that is to some extend defined by ideal experimental conditions. (The saving grace for physics is, that the Standard Model and General Relativity tie different experiments together. So an experiment in conflict with expectations is immediately in conflict with a lot of other experiments.)
To be clear what I am saying, I do not think that other sciences are a waste of time in general. But I think that their methods are too much inspired by physics. I think that we need a much more cautious approach to the scientific method and a lot more robust tools. In a way, it looks to me like building a car by taking inspiration from Formula 1, when the task at hand is crossing rivers and navigating rough terrain.
[1] Previously I assumed that it is just complicated, that all I see from studies is the headline "Coffee is/is not healthy" and if one would look into the studies I would find that a better picture is Coffee has some positive and some negative effects.
[2] An anisotropy in the arrival directions of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays. https://arxiv.org/abs/0711.2256 https://arxiv.org/abs/0711.2256
- jsprogrammer 10y ago2-sigma events should vanish all the time. p < 5% just means that you see it (vanishment) happening less than 1-in-20 times. If you have hundreds of such events, you'll have dozens of vanishings.
- yk 10y agoYes, exactly. My argument is the opposite, if you reason from evidence that vanishes from time to time, then you will have a very hard time to build a reasonable sound argument.
- stewbrew 10y agoIsn't this how science works? Even if "evidence" doesn't "vanish", your understanding of it could be invalidated. Truth is a temporary agreement.
- mamon 10y agoI'm no expert on this but isn't p < 5% riddiculously low threshold? I would rather set standard at p < 0.5% or even 0.05% This would probably solve "replicability crisis" in "soft" sciences like psychology.
- stdbrouw 10y agoThe problem is that then you will never find anything. There's always a trade-off between finding stuff that's not there and not finding stuff that really is out there.
- hannob 10y agoActually physics is the one I'm least worried about. You see tons of small studies with very weak methodology everywhere that never get replicated, yet people base recommendations on it and think they are true.