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>My findings are very much based on my own experience In my experience, people think they're far better at stock-picking and investing than they really are. H

>My findings are very much based on my own experience In my experience, people think they're far better at stock-picking and investing than they really are. Have you calculated your actual, after-all-expense returns? Because if you are consistently beating the market, risk-adjusted, start a hedge fund. I'm only half joking. It's important to interpret EMH "realistically", in that prices, on average, will reflect all relevant information. But it obviously doesn't occur instantaneously or perfectly. Everyone who has traded stocks has a few wins. The question is whether you can garner an advantage consistently.

EliRivers 10y ago
"Have you calculated your actual, after-all-expense returns?" Yes. I very rarely sell, so I can see it clearly, and the purchase costs listed in the interface include the purchase commission (I buy in lumps of 1000 GBP, so take a hit of about 1% on initial purchase). Holding charges comes out to a couple of hundred a year, which comes out of dividends. In one account, I invested gradually over three years, from April 2012 to March 2015. That's up on the order of 50% as I look at it today - looking at it this very second (it's a little rough as I reinvest the dividends, which count as fresh purchases in the accounting - it's up exactly 46% if reinvested dividends are considered to be fresh money). Some of the early purchases are up 100 to 200 percent, later purchases less so. There are some losers in there as well. I have sold only once at a loss in that lot; some BP shares that I changed my mind on. All other losers are still in the mix, and I leave my worthless shares in KAZ there to remind me of my losses. Big winners - ARM, Nokia, a global smaller companies fund. Big losers - KAZ, Bonmarche Holdings, Tesco. Another account that I opened (because I didn't want to exceed the government insurance limit) and placed money into for the last 15 months or so is currently up 20%. I've never sold anything from that. That is principally US and Japanese index funds, although some ARM in there is up 70% thanks to Softbank buying ARM. An earlier investment from about 2009 (which was nothing but safety) is up a little over 50% today, but that really was safety. Likewise never sold anything. I have done this by doing absolutely nothing special. Absolutely nothing. I simply took the common advice; low-cost index funds. I also read the news and sometimes buy into companies with brighter futures. A couple of years ago I read many articles about how GSK and AZN had been through tough times and were coming out of it. Bought some shares. Worked out well. That's all I do. For as long as I can remember, ARM has had nothing but growth in the news. Bought into them repeatedly. I have significant advantages over hedge funds; they have to trade. I can sit and do nothing for month after month, and when I suffer a 20% drop, I can continue to sit still and do nothing. If anyone wants to pay me to tell them when I buy something, knock yourself out :)
- n72 10y ago
  This is not nearly enough evidence to conclude that EMH is invalid. Yes, it's not perfect, but to conclude from this evidence that dividends are not priced into the price of a stock is... well, it's not sound reasoning.
  - EliRivers 10y ago
    To quote myself, from earlier: "The reason I believe this is not related to stock picking working for me." So it seems we agree that my stock picking success is not evidence for my beliefs on dividends and stock pricing.

EliRivers 10y ago

"Have you calculated your actual, after-all-expense returns?" Yes. I very rarely sell, so I can see it clearly, and the purchase costs listed in the interface include the purchase commission (I buy in lumps of 1000 GBP, so take a hit of about 1% on initial purchase). Holding charges comes out to a couple of hundred a year, which comes out of dividends. In one account, I invested gradually over three years, from April 2012 to March 2015. That's up on the order of 50% as I look at it today - looking at it this very second (it's a little rough as I reinvest the dividends, which count as fresh purchases in the accounting - it's up exactly 46% if reinvested dividends are considered to be fresh money). Some of the early purchases are up 100 to 200 percent, later purchases less so. There are some losers in there as well. I have sold only once at a loss in that lot; some BP shares that I changed my mind on. All other losers are still in the mix, and I leave my worthless shares in KAZ there to remind me of my losses. Big winners - ARM, Nokia, a global smaller companies fund. Big losers - KAZ, Bonmarche Holdings, Tesco. Another account that I opened (because I didn't want to exceed the government insurance limit) and placed money into for the last 15 months or so is currently up 20%. I've never sold anything from that. That is principally US and Japanese index funds, although some ARM in there is up 70% thanks to Softbank buying ARM. An earlier investment from about 2009 (which was nothing but safety) is up a little over 50% today, but that really was safety. Likewise never sold anything. I have done this by doing absolutely nothing special. Absolutely nothing. I simply took the common advice; low-cost index funds. I also read the news and sometimes buy into companies with brighter futures. A couple of years ago I read many articles about how GSK and AZN had been through tough times and were coming out of it. Bought some shares. Worked out well. That's all I do. For as long as I can remember, ARM has had nothing but growth in the news. Bought into them repeatedly. I have significant advantages over hedge funds; they have to trade. I can sit and do nothing for month after month, and when I suffer a 20% drop, I can continue to sit still and do nothing. If anyone wants to pay me to tell them when I buy something, knock yourself out :)

n72 10y ago
This is not nearly enough evidence to conclude that EMH is invalid. Yes, it's not perfect, but to conclude from this evidence that dividends are not priced into the price of a stock is... well, it's not sound reasoning.
- EliRivers 10y ago
  To quote myself, from earlier: "The reason I believe this is not related to stock picking working for me." So it seems we agree that my stock picking success is not evidence for my beliefs on dividends and stock pricing.