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I'm not talking about all the world's ills but rather 4 recent events with global, often disastrous consequences. Perhaps it is news to you, but there is a cert
by marcusgarvey 10y ago
I'm not talking about all the world's ills but rather 4 recent events with global, often disastrous consequences. Perhaps it is news to you, but there is a certain kind of person who makes their daily bread on the strength of their supposed expertise in politics, economics and finance. Think tankers, Davos panelists, former political appointees, the experts commonly cited in papers like the FT, NYTimes, WaPo, and the journalists and editorialists who give them ink and air time. They didn't see these events coming, despite the fact that the dynamics leading up to each one had been building for some time. They never seem to admit that they were wrong, and seemingly no one expects them to as they continue to carry on on the lecture and cited expert circuits. Worst of all, they do not seem to recognize that they are just as vulnerable to groupthink as anyone and they never seem to improve their methods of investigation which for me would mean consciously traveling out of the media capitals of New York, DC and London to visit and talk to people in other parts to get a better handle on popular sentiment; being hyper aware of when they might be trading integrity for access and status; and not being too prideful to take a look at alternative points of view from bloggers and commentators who do not trod the same carpeted halls.
- SixSigma 10y agoPeople who make good forecasts are not polarized enough for punditry. The authors of the book Superforecasting : The Science of Prediction have done research in this area. And a website [2] Nate Silver also tells a similar story in his book. He proved it too, by turning pundit. [1] https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136696 https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-P... [2] http://www.superforecasting.com/ http://www.superforecasting.com/