"Estimate", "likelihood", "viable long enough", "realize that value", "risk", "adjusted calculation", "isn't a guarantee". These words and phrases do not inspir

"Estimate", "likelihood", "viable long enough", "realize that value", "risk", "adjusted calculation", "isn't a guarantee". These words and phrases do not inspire confidence. Also, your analogy if full of it. You make it sound like options will pay out 5/6ths of the time. Adjust your analogy to rolling a 100,000-sided die with a couple of numbers that pay out, and we might be closer to the reality. With those adjusted numbers, no you cannot have my $0.50.