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> The researchers went on to speculate that the project was funded by a nation-state, but they stopped short of saying which one. So ... does anyone, perhaps w

by Kadin 10y ago

> The researchers went on to speculate that the project was funded by a nation-state, but they stopped short of saying which one. So ... does anyone, perhaps who doesn't have Kaspersky's business interests to protect, care to actually speculate? In other cases it's been seemingly well-known in the security community which APT attacks trace back to which countries, it's just apparently impolite to say it in public.

Mtinie 10y ago
The list of countries with a known infection suggests a Western nation acting alone, or in cooperation with others (for instance, the "Five Eyes"). Alternatively, one of the infected nations could also be responsible. Infecting selected systems inside your border could be a way to deflect attention when the hunt for the malware' authors began. Pure speculation on my part, and nothing particularly new.
groby_b 10y ago
Russia, Iran, Rwanda... Let's assume the latter is a vector, not the target. (The attacker is sophisticated enough that we can assume Rwanda itself is of little interest). Rwanda also has fairly close ties to Russia, which strengthens the vector hypothesis. Russia+Iran suggests a western actor. Their biggest shared interest is Syria, I'd think. And look, the Syrian conflict is on since March '11, and the activity according to Kaspersky reaches back to June '11. I'd say that's quite close. Neither the US nor Europe were that deeply invested in Syria. There is, however, one small middle-east country that has quite an interest in the entire region, and also isn't friends with Iran or Russia. And it just so happens that Israel is somewhat of a close affiliation of Rwanda. None of that is in any way conclusive, but it certainly is probable.
- ars 10y ago
  > and also isn't friends with Iran or Russia Actually Israel is on very friendly terms with Russia. There are a ton of Russian immigrants in Israel to the point that Putin called them "Russian ambassadors". It didn't start that way - part of the history of the creation of the modern state of Israel is Russia vs US proxy conflict (of sorts) via Egypt. But it's not like that anymore, not for a long time. (The US and Russia have moved on to other proxies :)
  - kobayashi 10y ago
    While I'm not a proponent of the idea that Israel is behind this malware, I disagree with you. Israel is not on particularly good terms with Russia. Yes, the two governments have established a hotline to ensure that Russian military maneuvers in Syria are not misinterpreted, but the two countries are closer to foes with a mutually accepted cold peace. It's in the strategic interests of each country not to be outwardly hostile to one another, but they're definitely adversaries in many respects.
btilly 10y ago
Kaspersky has significant ties to the Russian government, so presumably some nation-state who Russia opposes. This likely means the USA, a US ally like Israel, or a growing power such as China or India. But the USA is the most likely candidate.
vardump 10y ago
Remember you got the list from a company lead by ex-KGB, with very close FSB (and Putin) ties. Kaspersky himself studied in a KGB sponsored school. He even met his wife at a KGB holiday resort. Not suggesting anything, just keep that in mind.

by Kadin 10y ago

Mtinie 10y ago

The list of countries with a known infection suggests a Western nation acting alone, or in cooperation with others (for instance, the "Five Eyes"). Alternatively, one of the infected nations could also be responsible. Infecting selected systems inside your border could be a way to deflect attention when the hunt for the malware' authors began. Pure speculation on my part, and nothing particularly new.

groby_b 10y ago

Russia, Iran, Rwanda... Let's assume the latter is a vector, not the target. (The attacker is sophisticated enough that we can assume Rwanda itself is of little interest). Rwanda also has fairly close ties to Russia, which strengthens the vector hypothesis. Russia+Iran suggests a western actor. Their biggest shared interest is Syria, I'd think. And look, the Syrian conflict is on since March '11, and the activity according to Kaspersky reaches back to June '11. I'd say that's quite close. Neither the US nor Europe were that deeply invested in Syria. There is, however, one small middle-east country that has quite an interest in the entire region, and also isn't friends with Iran or Russia. And it just so happens that Israel is somewhat of a close affiliation of Rwanda. None of that is in any way conclusive, but it certainly is probable.

ars 10y ago
> and also isn't friends with Iran or Russia Actually Israel is on very friendly terms with Russia. There are a ton of Russian immigrants in Israel to the point that Putin called them "Russian ambassadors". It didn't start that way - part of the history of the creation of the modern state of Israel is Russia vs US proxy conflict (of sorts) via Egypt. But it's not like that anymore, not for a long time. (The US and Russia have moved on to other proxies :)
- kobayashi 10y ago
  While I'm not a proponent of the idea that Israel is behind this malware, I disagree with you. Israel is not on particularly good terms with Russia. Yes, the two governments have established a hotline to ensure that Russian military maneuvers in Syria are not misinterpreted, but the two countries are closer to foes with a mutually accepted cold peace. It's in the strategic interests of each country not to be outwardly hostile to one another, but they're definitely adversaries in many respects.

btilly 10y ago

Kaspersky has significant ties to the Russian government, so presumably some nation-state who Russia opposes. This likely means the USA, a US ally like Israel, or a growing power such as China or India. But the USA is the most likely candidate.

vardump 10y ago

Remember you got the list from a company lead by ex-KGB, with very close FSB (and Putin) ties. Kaspersky himself studied in a KGB sponsored school. He even met his wife at a KGB holiday resort. Not suggesting anything, just keep that in mind.